The Houston Sports Counterplot

by Andy

It wasn’t but two years ago that the Rangers were in dire straits. Under Tom Hicks, they were hard up for cash and circling the drain towards financial ruin. Ignorant and not giving a shit, they continued to make it rain like drunken sailors on players while begging Major League Baseball to help keep them afloat - to the tune of $40 million. And, for it, they’ve been rewarded with on-field success and a commissioner who will disrupt 50 years of history to appease their new Hall of Fame owner. And, today, their stupid and fat fans are swinging their dicks at Minute Maid Park because they believe they’ve gotten one over on the rest of us.

They’ve fooled Bud Selig-

…but they cannot fool Houston.

We know where Dallas stands. We know the Rangers organization and their fans are full of shit. We know they’re over-estimating their importance in the baseball world and in life.

Yet, the vindictive Nolan Ryan has Houston in his crosshairs. Nolan understands that Houston is vulnerable and he has made it his mission to crush the spirits of our fan base and convert them to “Dallas South.” He’s converted Central Texas and now his army of swamp-less people are marching south!

And, Bud Selig, playing Stimpy to Nolan’s Ren, is along for the ride.

And today, as those same chubby inbred Rangers fans gleefully infest our city, touting their illegitimate successes and waving their bogus “I’ve been a fan since Dan Palmer was our third baseman” flags, we must remember who has made all of this possible.

You see, this is a manufactured rivalry between a group of Johnny-come-lately frontrunners and a group of uprooted, war-hardened soldiers in the midst of organizational turmoil. Nolan is right – we’re vulnerable and ripe for the picking. But, in reality, this rivalry is nothing more than O-Town versus the Beatles. Yes, Rangers, you’ve gotten your hits, you’ve swept the nation and you’ve released your greatest hits album – but your existence is as fragile as the bluebonnets you claim as your own and your fandom will wither away and die as quickly as it bloomed.

Collectively, Rangers fans are insignificant and harmless. They’re junior high tough guys. Ultimately, I’m not nearly as worried about their staying power as I am of our neighbor’s embarrassment of having to admit “I shouldn’t have jumped off the Astros bandwagon for a flash in the pan.”

Look for them! A lifelong Rangers fan is hard to find. Pictures of lifelong Rangers fans are like pictures of the Loch Ness Monster – hardly believable and conveniently blurry.

But, this isn’t just about the Rangers. And, this isn’t just about the upscale trailer park community they call home.

This is about something bigger. This is about us against everyone else.

I scoff at your Lone Star Series – boys and girls, this is the War of Northern Aggression.

As the great philosopher Tupac Shakur would say, this is “me against the world.”

We’re foolish to think that this is between us against Dallas. THIS IS US against everyone else. THIS IS US against the people keeping Bagwell out of the Hall of Fame. THIS IS US against Milwaukee, Arizona and Colorado – the teams that SHOULD be moving to the American League. THIS IS US against the people all over the country who view us as second class citizens. THIS IS US against Nolan Ryan, Bud Selig and the rest of Major League Baseball.

Major League Baseball has downgraded our great city. They’re moving our team and our history to the junior circuit because THEY believe it is good for baseball. Selig and Ryan don’t give a shit about what’s best for Houston or what’s “good for baseball.” Nolan cares about the Rangers and Selig cares about lining Nolan’s pockets with money.

They’re taking a huge Mexican Food dump on our city and wiping their butts with the history of our sport.

Yes, Major League Baseball is having its way with Houston – after years of trapping us in the corner and creeping us out, they’ve finally accomplished what they’ve set out to do. They’re rawdogging us Roethlisberger style.

The Selig-Ryan marriage is multilayered and more complex than meets the eye. Let’s be honest, Bud is a mouthpiece for the rest of the league. He’s the ignorant and unfortunate messenger for a quieter and more dangerous power – the 30 nameless Major League Baseball owners. Bud gladly bends over for the owners and then lustfully agrees to their will.

Bud Selig has sold our city and whored out our national pastime for a lousy buck.  

And, as an actor, he plays the part of the bad guy and the owners cowardly crawl up under his skirt and away from conflict or criticism.

We shouldn’t direct our hate at just Nolan Ryan and Bud Selig. We should direct our hate at the other 28 MLB owners who are downgrading the Astros’ culture and history to appease Nolan Ryan.

Well, Major League Baseball, you wanted a rivalry.

You have one. 

by Stephen Naron 

Let’s be honest, this might not be a popular post with a lot of Astros fans. Just bringing it up at work nearly started a fist fight between me and another coworker. Heck, to be honest, eight year old me is severely pissed off that 31 year old me even has the stones to put this to writing. But here’s the truth…..Nolan Ryan is the enemy. I don’t mean we should dislike him based on our soon to be manufactured rivalry with the Dallas Rangers……. No, I mean Nolan Ryan does NOT want what is best for Houston, and I would even go as far as to say he wants the Houston Astros to fail.

Why is it so hard for us to come to grips with this? For starters, Nolan is an enormous piece of Astros history. Anyone over the age of 28 can still remember Ryan mowing hitters down in the Rainbow unis. He was everything young Texas ballplayers wanted to be: Tough, Fearless, Dominant etc. Nolan was a hero to all Houstonians. Unfortunately, that started to change in 1988 when Nolan left for that other Texas team amid a contract dispute. Do I blame Nolan entirely? Absolutely not. However, as you may well know the Rangers have one player in the HOF as opposed to the zero the Astros boast (Thanks a lot BBWAA….. Bagwell should already be there!), and that is because Nolan chose to enter the HOF as a Dallas Ranger! You know, because everybody recognizes Nolan Ryan from his last 4 years as a Ranger and not the entire decade of the 80’s when he made the Astrodome his personal S&M dungeon for opposing hitters. Nolan chose that honor, and in the process robbed the city of Houston a chance to once again claim our baseball hero.

Alas, Nolan did come back to the Astros organization post career, and even owned two minor league affiliates, but even that ended up a gigantic negative for Stros fans. Once Nolan sold his immortal soul to Tom Hicks and became the President and CEO of the Dallas Rangers, he decided to take our AAA affiliate and instead give us Oklahoma City. Great. Now our highest minor league team plays their games in the armpit of America …..North Dallas! As owner of both teams I guess Nolan had the right to make that decision, but you can’t argue that this didn’t suck for an Astros organization starting to finally put some effort into rebuilding their minor league system.

Still, the real reason to begin viewing Nolan Ryan as enemy #2 on the Astros list (Bud Selig can NEVER be displaced as #1!), is his weasely campaigning for the impending move to the AL West. Let’s look at some quotes of his shall we…….

“I grew up an Astros fan and I look at the Astros as a National League team, but I understand the desire to balance out the two leagues”  - Really Nolan? You are such a huge Astros fan that you chose not to enter the HOF wearing the cap of the team you had the most success with, and who you apparently grew up idolizing? Major League baseball was such a complete disaster being unbalanced, that you felt it would be necessary to remove your childhood team from the league that they, and you, have enjoyed enormous support for 50 years? Let’s read on….

“It’d be good for baseball in Texas to have two teams in the same state vying for the division lead.” Let me translate that….. “It’d be tremendous for North Texas to have a playoff tested veteran team dominating a young rebuilding team so that the Dallas Rangers can continue their recent history of trying to steal Astros fans in the great state of Texas.”  It’s great timing for the Rangers to suddenly be our in state rival. Where was the demand for this rivalry during the 30 years the Dallas Rangers were busy sucking, and best known for that clown Jose Canseco head butting a homerun over the fence? Also, who among you has been riveted at the ongoing competitive clash of titans known as “The Silver Boot”? 

“From our perspective I like having them in the same division because it gives us a team in our time zone…” So let me get this straight, moving the Astros to the AL West is good for baseball because the Dallas Rangers will get to play more games in their time zone AND the Houston Astros will begin playing a lot more out of their time zone…..got it. Notice the use of the words our and us, whenever Nolan uses those words now, he is NEVER talking about the Houston Astros or their fans.

Finally, “If we can improve our situation, the Texas Rangers and I certainly would be open to it.” That pretty much sums it up folks. Nolan was probably THE biggest proponent of moving the Astros to the AL. He has one team’s well-being in mind and that is the Dallas Rangers. These are just the quotes that I could locate; one has to believe that behind the scenes Nolan has been in Selig’s ear with a whole lot more enthusiasm for the move.

So here come the Rangers to town and what does Houston do? We are rolling out the red carpet for Nolan, Josh Hamilton, and the rest of the organization who would love nothing more than to make us their loser step brothers for the next decade, by having Ryan throw a first pitch out and giving away Nolan bobble heads. Haven’t we honored Nolan Ryan enough? When does Houston start changing its attitude and standing up for itself? Sure Nolan you can come to the games, but just know that you are now the enemy and we plan on making you regret the day you pined to have the rebuilding Stros forced into your division.

I don’t mind honoring a great player, and I am surely not giving away my signed Nolan Ryan baseball, but 31 year old me is starting to convince 8 year old me that Nolan Ryan is the enemy. This team is becoming a lot more fun to watch, and the minors are looking more promising than I can remember! Let Nolan Ryan have his Dallas Rangers, we have the Houston Astros…..and we aren’t going to let a former hero take them away from us!

by Andy

As the Astros teeter back and forth along the line of respectability, fans have freely shared their thoughts and opinions.

“They’re good!”

“No, they suck!”

“Astros and me are a bad romance!”

Safe to say, there is not an overwhelming consensus on how the fans feel about the Astros’ performance thus far nor are they able to accurately anticipate where this club could possibly be further along in the season.

And as the club rolls into June and July, we should get a better idea of what Jeff Luhnow’s options are and how he sees the long-term development of the Houston Astros. But, as of May 14^th, he’s not giving out any substantial hints. We’ve heard scuttlebutt and generic media morsels that were spoon-fed to us by the papa-papa-paparazzi. He’s not saying anything any other GM isn’t saying at this time – “we’re going to review all of our options and determine what is the best for our club…”

While we are unable to accurately predict what he’ll do in the long-term, we can, however, watch how he plays his cards and make determinations on what type of philosophies he espouses in regards to our Astros. There are two key players that I think we must keep an eye on – Jonathan Singleton and June’s first overall selection.

Jonathan Singleton

Singleton is one of the youngest players in AA. …and he’s absolutely crushing the ball right now. Singleton is leading the Hooks in homeruns, he’s batting over .300 and he’s showing a lot more plate discipline than he’s ever shown. He’s leading the Hooks in walks.

In every sense of the word, Jonathan Singleton was just born this way.  

Jeff Luhnow has to make a decision.

He has to ask himself: what the hell am I going to do with Jonathan Singleton.

Singleton is forcing Luhnow’s hand and something has got to give. Jeff Luhnow is either going to have to let Singleton stew in AA citing his age or throw caution to the wind and promote him to Oklahoma City. There’s a valid argument for each decision and I don’t think there is a definite right or wrong – but it might give us a little insight into how Jeff Luhnow plans to operate the club.

If Luhnow decides to keep Singleton at AA, it will be because he is in absolutely no rush to get him to Houston. Luhnow could absolutely slowplay Jonathan Singleton to the majors. This could mean that Singleton remains in Corpus Christi until the end of the season, advances to Oklahoma City for the 2013 campaign and is Houston’s opening day starter at first base in 2014.

However, if Luhnow promotes Singleton to AAA sometimes this year, it might mean that Luhnow expects Singleton to take over for Carlos Lee as the starting first baseman in 2013.  

With that being said, with trades in high gear and noisy rumors being irresponsibly thrown about as if we are living in Grand Central Station, there is not a clear-cut immediate replacement for Carlos Lee after the deadline. If Carlos is traded, we might see Matt Downs or Brett Wallace take over first base for the remainder of the season. However, Wallace is playing third in Oklahoma City and Matt Downs isn’t necessarily regarded as an every day player. Is it completely out of the realm of possibility that Jeff Luhnow could trade Carlos Lee at the trade deadline and promote Jonathan Singleton to Houston a month and a half shy of his 21^st birthday?

Number One Overall Draft Pick

As of now, we don’t know what path Jeff Luhnow is going to take – but once he is revealed, we’re going to learn a lot about Luhnow’s strategy for rebuilding the Astros.

If Jeff Luhnow selects Mark Appel or Mike Zunino, we can be sure that Luhnow feels the Astros need as much help at the major league level as soon as possible. Appel and Zunino could likely be drafted in June and see the major leagues as quickly as next year. Both could likely start their professional careers in Corpus Christi. Appel, from Stanford, is a front-of-the-end rotation type who could anchor a pitching staff for the next 10-15 years. Zunino, a junior, is a catcher out of the University of Florida and is one of the more polished prospects to come out of the rule four draft in the last few years.

Selecting Appel or Zunino would be a slam-dunk. These guys are known quantities. These two have a better chance of being productive major league players than any other two players in the draft.

However, neither has the ceiling of Buck Buxton.

Buck has tools for days and projects higher than Appel or Zunino. However, Buxton is going to require time. He isn’t as polished as Bryce Harper was out of high school and would likely take at least three years before he is major league ready.

Buck is not nearly as advanced as Appel or Zunino. …and there is a possibility that Buck may never pan out. Jeff Luhnow has to play a love game, play a love game, does Jeff Luhnow want love or does he want fame? The Astros can draft Buck and perhaps he falls flat on his face – that’s a risk Jeff Luhnow will have to consider.

Taking Buxton first and passing on Appel or Zunino would go a long way in showing that the Astros aren’t necessarily concerned with “who can get to the majors quicker” but rather “who will make a bigger impact for the Houston Astros five years down the road rather than two.”

In my opinion, there isn’t a wrong way to handle each of these situations.

Although, Luhnow has a limited background as a general manager, he has shown in the Cardinals organization that drafting and player development is his forte.

In a way, I think how Luhnow handles the draft will gives us a small indication of how he will handle Singleton. If the Astros select Buxton, we can assume that he plans on slowplaying Singleton to the majors and doesn’t see a reason to rush prospects to the major leagues. If he selects Appel or Zunino, we can assume that Luhnow feels a sense of urgency to win now and pass on high risk/high reward opportunities.

It will be an interesting few weeks for the Astros organization and we should get a better idea of how Jeff Luhnow plans to operate.

But, as of right now, we simply can’t read his p-p-p-poker face p-p-poker face. 

As the Astros scurry up the standings amid a 5-1 run, Wandy Rodriguez hot stove talk has inexplicably gone into high gear.

However, trading Wandy isn’t as easy as it seems. …or is it?

Ed Wade tried it.

This off-season, Jeff Luhnow may have looked into it 

But, as I pointed out last year, I didn’t think Wandy would be dealt until the trade deadline of this year. …but, then again, I might be wrong.

…again.

So, let’s take a realistic look at the possibilities facing the Astros, let’s examine a little bit of the history and see if we can’t determine viable options for Jeff Luhnow.

Ed Wade Just Couldn’t Do it

In 2010, when Ed Wade began wheeling and dealing, he sent Lance Berkman to the Yankees and Roy Oswalt to the Phillies. Wade surely took calls on Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers but likely didn’t get what he perceived as “fair value.” So, instead of dealing these guys for a fraction of their worth, he made a controversial decision to re-sign them.

At the time, it wasn’t a terrible idea. Wade may have felt the Astros could compete in 2011 (*cough* fatal mistake *cough*) or he may have felt that Myers and Rodriguez’s trade value would only increase. It was a gamble – but Wade was committed to getting his deal.

Now, before I go on, let me explain why I believe Wade chose to re-sign Rodriguez and trade Oswalt. As I’ve said before, Oswalt was a cancer. Oswalt threw his teammates under the bus, leveraged his no-trade clause and handpicked the team he wanted to play for. Ed Wade had to weigh his desire to remove Oswalt from the team and yield some sort of value (which Brett Wallace didn’t seem so bad at the time) against keeping Oswalt and having him possibly contaminate a young budding baseball team. Rodriguez, on the other hand, wasn’t as much of a public figure as Oswalt and certainly didn’t show his ass to the media – as Oswalt did. Easily, Rodriguez was worth the risk – Oswalt was not.

So, Wade felt that he didn’t need to rush a potential Wandy Rodriguez deal – or a Brett Myers deal. So, in 2010, he re-signed them both. Looking back, he may have made the right decision on Rodriguez but he re-signing Brett Myers turned out to be, in my opinion, the worst move of his regime. (although, if Myers can put up decent numbers, it’ll bode well in Wade’s defense.)

Peaking Value

There has been a saying amongst those “in the know” regarding Wandy’s trade value over the last two years – “Wandy’s trade value will never be higher.”

As the 2010 trade deadline approached, there were many people who thought Wade would deal the lefty because, as they saw it, “Wandy’s trade value will never be higher.” On July 31^st of that year, Wandy had an ERA of 4.49 – which was on the sunnier side of the 6.09 he was posting in June of that year. Although he finished the year at 3.60, he struggled in the first half of 2010. Seeing that he was 31, didn’t have an overwhelming track record for success and 2010 was his 3^rd year to post a sub-4.00 ERA, his value wasn’t all that high. However, taking all of those factors into account (and he was relatively cheap), I can understand why people claimed, “Wandy’s trade value will never be higher.”

But, in the face of his detractors, Ed Wade held onto Wandy and paid him to stay.

People assumed Wandy’s value had come and gone.

As the Astros limped into the 2011 trade deadline, the writing was on the wall for our floundering hometown team. They were beyond horrible. They were 35-73 at the deadline and alone as the worst team in baseball. They chose to, once again, cut their losses as they traded Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Scuttlebutt arose regarding a potential Wandy deal – but, again, it didn’t happen.   

After a horrible start, Wandy’s performance plateaued. There was a lot of talk that, even with the money Wandy was making, this was the best time to deal him. However, GMs may have been a little skittish to strike a deal for Wandy.

There were even rumblings that he’d be dealt after the trade deadline in a waiver deal. The Rockies claimed Wandy but a deal couldn’t be worked out.

And, now, 2012 is a different story. Is Wandy’s value now higher than it has ever been?

Will it be higher next year?

Is This The Year?

So far, Wandy Rodriguez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. At 1.64, he has one of the ten best ERAs in all of baseball. He’s eating up innings and has yet to give up a homerun. Without a doubt, this has been Wandy Rodriguez’s best April. Hands down.

Even with the money that Wandy is making, it is hard to imagine a point where he had higher value than right now. He has established himself as a front-end starter who has produced consistent results over the last five years. …and, he’s in the midst of a hot streak.

However, since Wandy is producing and other players are stepping up, the Astros have found themselves in an unfamiliar position. They’re fielding a competitive baseball team.

As I am writing this, the Astros are fresh off a series win against their division rival Cardinals and a clean sweep of the Mets. Currently, the Astros are 13-15 and they are only getting hotter. Obviously, if the Astros were 7-20, the first half of the season would serve as an audition for Wandy – but now, teams lusting for Wandy’s services must now have to compete with another bidder.

The Houston Astros.

Winning The Gate vs Winning The Future

If the Astros continue to be competitive, Jeff Luhnow and Jim Crane are going to have some serious discussions about whether or not to blow up our Houston Astros. 100 losses and getting unceremoniously booted from the National League has gotten Astros fans particularly sour. Fans are rightfully are pissed. But, if the Astros can find a way to play meaningful baseball in September, it’d go a long way in recovering a lot of the goodwill lost from the previous few years. It’d also send a message to the city: we intend to win.

…and it will bring fans into the stadium and Jim Crane will see dollar signs. Astros win, Jim Crane wins and fans win – that’s what Michael Scott calls a “win, win, win.”

I am of the opinion that Jim Crane and Jeff Luhnow are victims of their own success (and Ed Wade’s success, too.) Its likely that Crane and Luhnow had no idea the Astros would be competitive. How could they have known that Jose Altuve would go off like this? Or Jed Lowrie? Or Schafer? Or Wandy? The Astros brass likely projected the Astros would be completely out of the playoff picture by the All Star break, so trading high priced veterans at the deadline would seem fairly logical. However, with a few wins under their belt and with gate numbers likely on the rise, they may feel they’ve fallen into a gold mine!

…and that’s not such a bad thing.

As a matter of fact, winning trumps all. Winning now beats winning later!

Our Houston Astros have shown a desire to compete – this opens up a whole new can of worms and brings a lot of questions to the forefront.

It is a given that Jim Crane’s chief goal is to get people to spend their money on the Houston Astros. It is also a given that everything he does is to get people to spend their money on the Houston Astros. As of now, fans aren’t exactly buying what he’s selling – but if this team can find a way to be competitive, history tells us that fans will support this club. People in Houston will spend their money on a winner. Thus, winning is the best way to market the Houston Astros.  And, as a businessman, Jim Crane fully understands this. Drayton McLane understood this, too – which is why he never fully committed to rebuilding.

Simply put, fans do not understand the concept of rebuilding. Fans only understand “the Astros suck.” And all they have to do is look at the win/loss record to prove their point – if Crane promises them some wins, they’ll show up and spend money. Houstonians have shown that they’re not going to sit through nine innings of a subpar product. And, if the Astros trade Wandy, Brett Myers and Carlos Lee – it is likely that they’ll present a subpar product and Crane will continue to see meager gate numbers.

…and that just can’t happen.

In a way, Crane and Luhnow need to realize that the Houston Astros are their most worthy adversaries for the services of Wandy Rodriguez. In reality, being competitive will thicken Wandy’s market as the Astros emerge as serious competitors for his service. Crane and Luhnow will have to make a decision at the trade deadline and it will be based on the club’s position in the standings and whether or not there is a realistic chance that they compete for a playoff spot. On July 30^th, the Astros will play their 104^th game of the season – will they need to be at .500 or will they need to be within a few games of a wild card spot? I’m not sure – but I am sure that the number could be lower than that of previous years because of an expanded playoff format.

Point being, the Astros cannot afford to trade Wandy Rodriguez for pennies on the dollar when there is so much at stake – like capturing a playoff spot, making money and goodwill to Astros fans.

This needs to be a blockbuster deal for the Houston Astros. This needs to be a deal that Luhnow can point to and say “I’m sorry we gave up Wandy, but the guys we got in return will be the faces of our franchise for the next 15 years.”

If he can’t say that – he shouldn’t make a deal.

This makes Wandy even more valuable. Teams that are interested in Wandy should be well aware that the ball is in the Astros court, and like last year and the year before, there is no need to trade the lefty for an inadequate return. These teams will have to recognize that if they don’t put their best foot forward for Wandy’s services – there is a realistic possibility that the Astros won’t deal him at all. 

-Andy

follow me on twitter! 

Just Lose, Baby!

At 3-4, the Astros were staring down the barrel of a fully loaded Heath Bell on April 14th…

It was almost scripted like a movie. After several painful hours after exposition and sporadic action, the bad guy finally caught up with the good guy and tied him up. The bad guy whipped out a gun, pointed it at the bad guy and embarked on a lengthy monologue that detailed his diabolic plans to destroy the planet.

“…and that, JD Martinez, is how the Miami Marlins plan to hypnotize the world with strategically placed homoerotic dolphin sculptures! Bahahahaha!”

Of course, while he’s talking, the good guy managed to file through his restraints and muscle the firearm from the bad guy. With all his might, the good guy threw the bad guy through a glass window, shards of glass explode, the world is saved, the good guy makes out with Scarlett Johansson and the credits start to roll.

The Marlins could have shut the door and ended the movie – but they didn’t. The Astros hung around, bided their time and struck when the opportunity presented itself. They made sure their movie had a happy ending.

This is something the Astros simply failed to do in 2011.

In 2011, our Houston Astros would have lost that game 4-1. That team would have given up and probably would have allowed the Marlins to tack on another couple of runs.

The 2012 Houston Astros are not the 2011 Houston Astros.

Granted, it hasn’t even been a full month, but there is an evident culture shift and the Crawford Street Kids are trying their damndest to shake their losing habits.

Since beating up on Heath Bell, the Astros have gone 7-10, 3 of which includes a sweep of the hated Metropolitans.

…however, if you’re on twitter, you’re still hearing the following:

“The Astros finally have come back down to Earth.”

“#MillsLogic #MillsLogic #MillsLogic”

“The Astros need to lose to ensure they get a good draft pick.”

…really sweet, huh?

Where the hell is the fight with these people?

I’ll be the first to admit, I picked the Astros to end up with a losing record – but I didn’t predict them to finish last and I picked them to play way better than they did last year. I still stand by my prediction that they’ll win 77 games. Hell, with the way they’re playing – it’s conceivable that they can find a way to get to .500! That’ll ruffle expert feathers!

As I read those statements, my heart sank a little. I’m seriously worried that Houston is regressing into accepting a losing culture. It’s scary because, in my opinion, this is the root of all of our disrespect. That rest of the sports world can’t respect our city if we can’t even respect ourselves – right?

Clutch City? Jeff Bagwell? The Super Bowl?

So, if you’re making anyone of these statements, I’ve got a few things to say to you:

“The Astros have finally come back down to Earth.”

I’m not even 100% sure as to what does this even mean? The Astros are playing how you expected them to play and because they are losing all is right with the world?

How the hell are we supposed to decide how a team is supposed to play? Because Keith Law or ESPN says this is how the Astros are supposed to play? I know because I write an Astros blog? We can all make educated predictions based on past results – but, in reality, none of us really know what’s going to happen. A few losses in April doesn’t mean the Astros are on the road back to 100 losses - just like a few wins won’t mean their going to the World Series. Maybe we’re all wrong – maybe the Astros are supposed to be GREAT. We’re not experts. We can’t tell the future. We’re just as clueless as anyone else.

Each and every year a team or a player comes out of nowhere to have a breakout season – as a matter of fact, the same people who are saying “the Astros are finally coming back down to Earth” also thought that Jimmy Paredes would have taken Jose Altuve’s spot by now. Already in April, Pocket Jesus has established himself as one of the better offensive players in the league.

If any team can come out of nowhere and have a breakout year - it’s our Houston Astros.

And, “finally,” as if there is some sort of relief that they are “finally” playing poorly to prove you right? 

As fans, we need to take a huge step back and quit letting our Twitter reputations get in the way of rooting for our favorite team. It’s okay to be a fan and it’s okay to be wrong!

“#MillsLogic #MillsLogic #MillsLogic”

If you’re not on Twitter, you might not understand what “#MillsLogic” means. #MillsLogic is how people react when Brad Mills makes, in their opinion, a questionable move. Basically, #MillsLogic is a way of saying “well, this is not how I would do things.” Also, #MillsLogic is a way of saying “I’m smarter than Brad Mills and I should be managing the Houston Astros.”

Arrogant.

When Alyson Footer posts the line-up on Twitter, folks start to notice that Player A is batting where Player B should be batting – in their opinion, of course. And, since this is not how “Random Tweep” would fill out the batting order, Brad Mills must be incredibly stupid and incapable of managing the Astros.

So, let’s back track to a few months ago when Astros fans were prepared to throw a ticker-tape parade for Jeff Luhnow and his throng of sabermetic scientists. I suppose these #MillsLogic bozos never take into account that Brad Mills is likely employing some of the philosophies that his supervisors espouse – who wouldn’t? It isn’t as if Brad Mills is making boneheaded moves and the 500 or some employees of Luhnow’s SABR squad are banging their heads against walls. But, as I was saying…

After 20 some-odd #MillsLogic tweets, Mills move pays off, Player A goes 3x4 and everyone starts in with the “Of course Player A would go off on the day I go off on him.”

This. Happens. All. The. Time.

As a matter of fact, whenever I see a player’s name in a #MillsLogic tweet, I can pretty much guarantee that that player will most likely have a good game.

So, this begs the question: doesn’t Brad Mills deserve a little more credit than what he’s getting? Absolutely Brad Mills is not above warranted criticism. I’m not saying he doesn’t make bad moves, either – he does. But, isn’t there a realistic possibility that Brad Mills knows what he’s doing? Is there a possibility that Brad Mills is the manager because he’s the best man for the job? Is there a possibility that Brad Mills has a better understanding of how to win a baseball game than we do?

I’m not saying we’re not smart or we’re incapable of figuring out baseball yada yada yada – I’m just saying Brad Mills is likely smarter than you or me and more capable of managing the Astros than we are.

…that’s all.

And the people spouting off on the #MillsLogic crap had already, before the season started, pegged the Astros to lose 100 games. In a way, it’s kind of effed up that these people are admitting that the Astros do not have a lot to work with but still think Mills does not deserve the benefit of the doubt. …and, mind you, the team is 11-14.

It’s ridiculous.

Brad Mills is a good baseball man. He’s baseball savvy. He’s spent most of his life playing or coaching in professional baseball – I’m willing to go along with #MillsLogic before I go along with #YourLogic.

“The Astros need to lose to ensure they get a good draft pick.”

I can’t stand this one.

There is absolutely no scenario where losing is acceptable. Period. Exclamation mark.

If you want your favorite team to lose - go buy a Cubs hat. They’ll never let you down.

As of now, the Astros are the second youngest team in professional baseball. They’re 3 games under .500 and they’re improving every day. And, with the possibility of significant player movement, it is highly like that they’ll be the youngest after the trade deadline. During Sunday’s game, the Astros fielded two of the three youngest players in baseball.

At 21 years old, Jose Altuve is currently 5th in the NL in batting average. Altuve is also in the top 10 in on-base percentage, OPS, hits, singles, doubles, triples, runs scored and total bases. Let me ask you: do you think Jose Altuve gives a shit about where the Astros draft in 2013? Jose Altuve is trying to win baseball games.

At 24, JD Martinez is top 10 in RBI, on-base percetage and walks – do you think he wants the Astros to draft in the top 10 next year?

Jordan Schafer is 25. He’s played phenomenal defense in centerfield. Schafer is currently in the NL’s top 10 in runs scored and stolen bases. Do you think he wants to be on a 100-loss team?

Again, this is the one of the youngest teams in baseball and some of these young guys are having outstanding years. These guys are getting good! Why in the world would fans suggest losing baseball games would somehow be positive?

Hard work pays off and our Houston Astros are working hard! Let’s root for their success and not their failure!

Folks, losing is a culture. People who expect to lose and people who are conditioned to lose will find new and creative ways to lose. That’s simply how the world works. Teams like the Yankees, Braves and Cardinals expect to win – every year. Their players put on their uniforms with the understanding that losing is unacceptable – and they win. This is their culture.

You condition yourself to be a winner. You train to be a winner. Winners hate losing. I want our team to hate losing as much as I hate losing. I want the players and men and women who work in the front office to get sick to their stomachs when the Astros are playing poorly – because I do. 

I don’t EVER want losing to EVER be acceptable. EVER!

The Houston Astros desperately need to develop a winning culture. That is way more important than a “good pick in the draft.”

You’ll notice something: teams that want to win the draft – usually do. They do so each and  every f**king year. It’s not shocking to see teams with losing cultures drafting in the top 10 and teams with winning cultures drafting near the end.

If the Astros end up playing well and manage to stay out of the top part of the draft, they can (and will) unfurl their secret weapon, the great equalizer – Jeff Luhnow. Astros fans who believe the only way the Astros are going to get better in the draft by picking at the beginning of the draft are sorely mistaken. First off, it is not a given that the best player in the draft is always picked in the top 10 – or even in the first round. Even the Tampa Bay Rays picked a few stinkers in the 9 years they picked in the top 5 – anyone remember Dewon Brazelton, Tim Beckham, Wade Townsend or Josh Hamilton?

Astros fans should give Jeff Luhnow more credit. Luhnow is competent enough to build a winner regardless of where he picks in the draft.

Fans should decide whether they have faith in Luhnow’s ability to run this team or if they want to continue to be losers – because those are our choices. 

-Andy

The Crawford Street Kids Pull The Plug On Geriatric Jamie

After 3 painful losses, the Astros have started out the 2012 campaign 0-3 leaving hundreds of hardcore Astros fans contemplating “when will this club get a win?”

Wait, what?

Hold the phone – the Astros did not get swept this weekend? They actually won two games and took the series?

Are you telling me that OUR Houston Astros are 2-1? Are you telling me they have a winning record? Were you there to witness this?

…of course, you weren’t. 

The 2012 season started with a thud as the Astros dropped the opener to the Rockies, 5-3. The Astros played sub-crappy defense, committing 4 errors and making asses of themselves in front of the largest home crowd they’ll possibly see. Wandy didn’t allow an earned run and Carlos Lee had 2 hits, including a homerun, and 2 RBI – so if you’re keeping track of their trade value, it was a nice start.  …more on that in a little bit.

After the humiliating loss, the Astros decided to embark on a feat not seen since 2009 – a winning record. However, the game was already lost because the national opinion and feel good story weavers were swaying the Rockies towards victory.

Funny how things work out sometimes?

Jamie Moyer was aiming to be the oldest starting pitcher to ever register a win and, by everyone’s opinion, his first start of the year against the Astros was a slam-dunk – a technicality. ESPN and MLB pulled out all the stops as they were prepared to throw a huge ass tickertape parade for Geriatric Jamie on Saturday – but it was not to be. Geriatric Jamie has to wait another day! …the defiant Crawford Street Kids foiled their wicked plans. While the kids stayed off of Moyer’s lawn, they wore out the base paths and had Moyer reminiscing about the cavernous Astrodome. 

Kids these days, huh?

After Saturday’s game, I clicked over to ESPN to peak at their “Bottom Line.” There wasn’t any mention of “Jamie Moyer is the oldest pitcher to ever get his ass beat by the Houston Astros.” …I guess it’s not a record.

Oh Me So Harrell, Me Love You Long Time!

Also on Saturday, Lucas Harrell has an outstanding game. While folks at home were asking “who the hell is this guy?” he was unapologetically mowing down Rockies hitters at an alarming frequency. He was a man possessed - half man and half Mike Scott. In 7 innings pitched, Harrell didn’t give up any runs, allowed 3 hits and showed Jamie Moyer that, indeed, the future of baseball is in good hands.

It wasn’t until Brandon Lyon showed up that the Rockies finally got on the board. But, try as he might, even Brandon Lyon couldn’t snuff out the work of Lucas Harrell. …more on that in a minute. 

2012 Houston Astros: Winners

At 1-1, the Astros were looking to extend their 1 game winning streak and hop over to the sunny side of .500 with a series win against the Rockies. And, on the bats of Lee and Brian Bogusevic, they did just that. Bud Norris struckout 8 in 7 innings pitched and, by golly, the Astros won the damn game…

…and now have a two game winning streak…

…and are now above .500.

That’s two phrases we haven’t been able to say a whole lot in the last couple of years.

Trading Aces

Wouldn’t it be awesome if Carlos Lee, Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez remained on the team throughout the year? I’m not saying it will happen – but what if the Astros show they can be a little more than “somewhat competitive?” The Rockies are a good team and the Astros were competitive in all 3 games – and won 2! If the Astros show they can compete and hover around .500, and the group is producing, there is no reason to trade these guys. Granted, I don’t think the Astros will be within striking distance of a playoff spot, and I do think the group will eventually be dealt– but, after this first series, I’m not so sure I’d want to count out the Crawford Street Kids!

Your Lyon Eyes

The Astros acquired Justin Maxwell off of waivers on Sunday and will make a corresponding move when Maxwell arrives with the club – should be Monday. I’m not sure who is leaving Astros Island, but I do know that there are 13 pitchers and one of them has gotta go. Smart money says that it’s Fernando Abad or Wesley Wright – but isn’t it time to cut bait with Brandon Lyon?

As I’ve said on Twitter, Brandon Lyon has an expiration date with this club. I see absolutely no scenario where he’s still on this club in August – I just don’t. So why are we delaying the inevitable?

We’ll see what happens. 

Blog Me Gently, Blog Me Slowly…

Michael Clair from Old Time Family Baseball chimes in with his thoughts on the Astros start.

Jayne from What The Heck, Bobby? also writes for The Futurists. Definitely bookmarked!

Here’s a Random Random Astro from AstrosCounty.

I thoroughly enjoy The Quadruple A blog.

Hey! I made it into Whiskers On A Stache! 

Okay! That’s it! 

-Andy

(UPDATE: CRISIS AVERTED! Stretch Suba got his lucky number back and will be behind home plate - in the bullpen - for the 2012 season. Still no activity as far as the scheduling of a Stretch Suba Bobblehead Night.)

Shots Fired!

If you’re an Astros fan, you’d probably describe yourself as “cautiously optimistic.” And, rightfully so – there’s a lot of new (newish) faces on the club and a lot of uncertainty ahead personnel-wise.

Where’s Wandy going? What about Lee? Will Brett Myers be a good closer? Who is Marwin Gonzalez? What happened to Humberto Quintero? Where’s the tall lanky guy who wants to be a champion? 

If you’re an outsider, you’ve probably gone ahead and penciled in the Astros for 100 losses and are on to talking about more pressing matters like A-Rod’s new girlfriend or the luxury Sea-Doos Albert Pujols bought with his fat Angels contract.

You’d be wrong to overlook the Astros.

I’m not saying the Astros will win the division or vie for the Wild Card – I’m saying they’ll be somewhat competitive. “Somewhat competitive” isn’t what major league franchises shoot for, but after 106 losses, being on the left side of the century mark constitutes as a huge improvement.

To write off our Houston Astros before the first pitch is thrown is lazy.

I’ve read preview after preview from outsiders with a common theme: the Astros are terrible. They employ cookie-cutter potshots that are unfunny and unimaginative. I’m embarrassed for them. 

They can all kiss our asses when the Astros prove them wrong. 

The Astros are equipped with a new owner (Jim Crane) and a new general manager (Jeff Luhnow). These two are tasked with the responsibility of bringing the Astros back to prominence. While a daunting task, the Astros have a decent foundation for rebuilding - a minor league system that is making huge strides towards respectability. (George Springer hit a homerun last night for Lancaster – a grand slam!)

Jim Crane’s key role is to make baseball exciting again. Unfortunately, that does not include lower beer prices, changing the uniform or realignment – Houstonians want a quality on-field product.

Jeff Luhnow took over for Ed Wade in December and has already made his mark on the team. He’s traded away Mark Melancon, Humberto Quintero and Jason Bourgeois. While I’m excited about Luhnow’s potential as a MLB GM, four months is hardly enough time to assess his performance. It seems like everyone is ready to designate Luhnow as the franchise savior, but I am reserving judgment until after the trade deadline.

Luhnow is tasked with three huge moves that carry long-term implications for the Houston Astros. In June, he’ll select the first overall player in the amateur draft and, in July, he’ll likely deal de facto ace, Wandy Rodriguez. Also, at some point, Luhnow is going to have to decide on what to do with Carlos Lee. These three moves will set the tone for Luhnow’s tenure and I have faith he’ll make the right decisions – after all, he does employ a Director of Decision Sciences.

As of now, it appears as though only 2 players who started Opening Day 2011 will make starts on Opening Day 2012: Carlos Lee and, oddly enough, Chris Johnson.

This team is special – I can feel it. They’re not going to win the division but they are going to turn some heads. …and they’re going to win some ball games!

2011 was a painful season. I had fans of other teams tell me they felt sorry for us. We got made fun of and, ultimately, the team gave up. The Astros have been kicked around and kicked out – and someone has to pay for all the heartache from 2011. That someone is going to be 2012.

Let’s kick some ass!

Go Astros.

The Line-Up

1.) Jordan Schafer - CF

            In my opinion, Jordan Schafer is the most interesting position the player the Astros will start on Opening Day. At only 24, Schafer is just a couple of years removed from being one of the most heralded prospects in Major League Baseball. He’s an outstanding physical specimen who is going to steal a lot of bases but probably not hit for much power. The ability to get on base is a must for Schafer, so he’s going to have to work counts and learn to take a walk. Schafer has the potential to hit for average, but he may never reach the lofty projects levied on him while in the Braves organization.

            The worst case scenario for Schafer is that his injured wrist never truly allows him to become a productive major league baseball player. If that’s the case, expect JB Shuck or Austin Wates in this spot in August.

            However, I am predicting that Schafer hits for average, gets on base, steals bases and plays solid centerfield defense.

            Jordan Schafer’s batting average: .281/10/41 40 SBs
            Michael Bourn’s batting average: .280/6/45 60 SBs

2.) Marwin Gonzalez – SS

            Jed Lowrie got moved to the 15-day DL and will miss Opening Day. Marwin Gonzalez will get the start in his place.

            So, we’ll talk about Lowrie.

            Lowrie, who was dealt to Houston in the Mark Melancon deal, is “the man” at shortstop for the time being. Offensively, he’s an upgrade over Clint Barmes but a notch or two below defensively. Honestly, I’ll take Jed Lowrie and the compensatory pick over Clint Barmes every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

            Getting away from Boston might be a good thing for Lowrie – not having to face the Yankees and Rays pitching could do wonders for his batting average. Lowrie might show a little pop as well.

            Jed Lowrie: .270/17/58
           Clint Barmes: .251/10/45 

3.) JD Martinez – LF

            JD Martinez is an interesting cat. I question whether the power numbers or batting average will come along, but he seemed quite comfortable at the plate in 2011. When he connects, he can hit the ball a long long LONG way. He hit .274 in a little over 200 ABs for the Astros after making short work of the Astros minor league system.

            I’ll project that the power numbers increase and the batting average declines. I’ll pick him to hit .260 but wouldn’t be surprised if he hits .240 or .280 – it’s really tough to peg him at this point in his career.

            He’s not the ideal 3-hole hitter, he’s more of a 5, in my opinion, but he’s most likely the best option the Astros have for this spot.  

            J.D. Martinez .260/28/86

4.) Carlos Lee – 1B

            Carlos Lee must feel like Rose Nylund in a Golden Girls reunion episode – where the hell did everybody go? Gone are the days where he recognizes familiar pals and confidants because they’re all playing in different cities.

The biggest question concerning Lee’s 2012 outlook is not how well he’ll hit – it’s where he’ll hit. Carlos Lee is in the final year of a fat contract and looks likely to be dealt at some point in the season.

            If Carlos Lee can hit for average, drive in an assload of runs and mix in a few homeruns, he’ll be able to yield a nice prospect or two from a contender looking to bolster their offense. Furthermore, Lee will be a free agent, and though his days earning $100M are over, he’ll probably (I hate saying this) try.

            Interesting to note, Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman both had 94 RBI in 2011.

            Carlos Lee isn’t a terrible baseball player. He’s severely overpaid and his contract has crippled the franchise – but, on the whole, he’s still a decent baseball player.

            Carlos Lee .280/23/91 (traded on July 29^th to the Toronto Blue Jays)

5.) Brian Bogusevic

            Brian Bogusevic was a pleasant surprise in 2011. He finally proved that he was capable of playing at the big league level and showcased one of the better outfield arms in the National League.

I feel the same way about Bogusevic this year as I did Chris Johnson at this time last year… and we know how that turned out.

            Oh… you don’t read my blog? Well, I picked Chris Johnson to go off in 2011 and well… he didn’t.

            Damn the torpedoes! I’m doing it again!

            Brian Bogusevic .285/25/90

6.) Jason Castro

            I imagine Jason Castro is super pissed. After missing all of 2011, it is as if people forgot all about him. There was a lot of excitement when he made his major league debut and he was, by all accounts, the Astros franchise catcher for the next 10-15 years. But…

            …then he got hurt.

            …then he missed all of 2011.

            …then the Astros signed Chris Snyder, Landon Powell, Mitch Meluskey, Johnny Bench, Ernie Lombardi and twenty other guys.

            …then people, like me, suggested Castro start the year in AAA.

            …then pundits suggested the Astros draft a catcher with the first overall pick.

            I’d probably be pissed, too. He’s getting Wally Pipped. However, Castro reasserted his dominance this spring by hitting .364 and racking up 9 RBI. Castro’s spring forced Luhnow’s hand and Humberto Quintero was demoted to Kansas City. Castro has found himself atop of the depth chart and, I believe, he’s ready to have the season we’ve expected from him.

            Jason Castro .291/21/91

7.) Chris Johnson

            I like Chris Johnson – a lot! However, I’m just not really sure he sticks around. But, then again, who takes his place? Even though he’s at 3B in OKC, I think Wallace will replace Carlos Lee at the deadline and I’m not sure Luhnow will move Jimmy Paredes back across the diamond. Chris Johnson may stick around due to the fact that the Astros really don’t have any viable options – maybe Bixler? Would they trade for someone?

            Chris Johnson had a very strong spring. He batted .355 and led the team in homeruns. He was second on the team in RBI and tied JD Martinez for the most ABs. It’s not very fair that I’m discounting Johnson’s spring – but, damn, I don’t have much faith in the guy.

            I picked him to do really well in 2011 and I’m picking him to do really poorly in 2012. I hope I’m wrong.

            Chris Johnson .235/10/42

8.) Jose Altuve

            While in Kissimmee, Jose Altuve led the Astros in walks. That’s huge! In 221 at-bats in 2011, Altuve had 5 walks – this spring, he had 11 walks in 57 at-bats.            

            It might not be fair that I disregard Chris Johnson’s spring and use Altuve’s stats to indicate how his season will play out, but this is my blog and I can do damn well what I please. In all seriousness, it is imperative that Altuve learns to take pitch – and, he’s shown the ability to do so this spring.

            While I’m not expecting Altuve to lead the Astros in walks in 2011, if he can 50 walks – he’ll be in GREAT shape. I’m thinking Altuve is going to rack up a lot of doubles and triples, too.

            Of all the Astros players, I’m predicting him to have the best season.

You’re my boy, Pocket Jesus!

            Jose Altuve .300/10/70 48 BB 38 dbls

Starters

1.) Wandy Rodriguez

            I think we should enjoy Wandy while he’s here. He’s Jeff Luhnow’s most valuable trade chip and I think he’ll be dealt at the trade deadline. Sure, Luhnow could display some restraint and hold onto him  - but why say no when it feels so good to say yes?

            In my opinion, Wandy Rodriguez may be the most underrated starter in the National League – even people who supposedly follow the Astros discount his performance. Wandy is an outstanding pitcher! Don’t let anyone tell you any different!

            Wandy went even with the league at 11-11 last year which is a feat in itself on a 100-loss team. He also sported a 3.49 ERA with 166 punchouts. Expect more of the same in 2012… while he’s here.

                        Wandy Rodriguez 12-10/ 170K/ 3.66

2.) Lucas Harrell

            Who is this guy?

            Well, in July of 2011, the Astros claimed Harrell off of waivers from the White Sox. In 13 innings with Houston, Harrell posted a 3.46 ERA and struckout 10 batters.  This spring, Harrell put in 16 innings worth of work and yielded a 2.16 ERA with 6 strikeouts – making it impossible for Mills & Co to keep him off of the roster.

            He’s a guy who may lose his job to Lyles at some point, but with the possibility of trades – he could go wire to wire as well.

            Lucas Harrell 10-11/ 150K/ 4.01

3.) Bud Norris

            Last month, I picked Bud Norris to represent the Astros in the All Star Game. I still stand by that. I don’t think Norris is going to put up amazing numbers – but someone has to go, right? Do bloggers get picked? In the first half, I imagine Norris will have respectable strikeout numbers and post a good ERA earning him an All Star nod.

            However, at the most, he will only get to see St. Louis twice before the break– contingent on where the Cardinals fall in the Astros starting rotation. So, who knows if he’ll be able to pad his stats by punking those bitches before All Stars are selected.

            And when will Luhnow extend Norris? Norris could be a guy that the franchise keeps around through “rebuilding” or Luhnow could see Norris as a potential trade chip. It’ll definitely be interesting to see how this plays out.

            Bud Norris 14-9/ 185K/3.40

4.) JA Happ

            I’m forecasting special things for JA Happ! How special? Well, for starters, I believe he has turned the corner and will not get sent to the minors again. Also, I think he’s the pitcher we saw in September – not the guy we saw… well… since he’s been in Houston. He’s not going to be an All Star and he won’t be in Wandy or Norris’ class – but I think he has the opportunity to be an above average pitcher for the Astros.

            I think he finishes the season with a decent w/l record by putting himself in winnable situations.

            JA Happ 10-10/ 140K/ 3.97

5.) Kyle Weiland

            Weiland, along with Jed Lowrie, was dealt to the Astros for Mark Melancon. It is interesting to note that Weiland got ejected from his first major league game. Got a little bit of Dan Wheeler in him – the only thing better than plunking Vlad Guerrero is plunking Derrek Lee or anyone on the Cardinals.  

            Weiland got the longest look from the Astros brass this spring and sported a 3.75 ERA and earned the 5^th spot in the rotation.

            I expect Weiland to spend the entire year in the rotation. I suspect there will be a few trades that effect the starting rotation but I cannot imagine Luhnow trading for a major league starter – I imagine Jordan Lyles, Dallas Keuchel and maybe Jarred Cosart will get starts at the big league level. Weiland’s spot is safe… I think.

            Kyle Weiland 7-10/ 140K/ 4.38

CP: Brett Myers

            Brett Myers takes over for Mark Melancon who took over for Brandon Lyon. Myers, if you remember, Myers was the hard-luck loser from Opening Day 2011. No – scratch that, Myers got the ND and Brandon Lyon got the loss because he blew the save. Funny how things work like that.

            I’m expecting both Brett Myers and Brandon Lyon to be gone by the trade deadline. I suspect Myers will be traded to a contender (Boston, Cincinnati, Philadelphia) and Brandon Lyon will be designated for assignment.

            Brett Myers 4.32/ 28 saves

NL Central Preview:

1.) Brewers (88-74) Carlos Lee is now the fattest 1B in the league, but that isn’t stopping the Brewers from winning the division. Keep an eye on Aramis Ramirez and Wily Peralta!

2.) Reds (86-76) Joey Votto is now the best 1B in the league. I think the Reds win one of the two wild card spots. But is 86 wins going to be enough?

3.) Pirates (83-79) Jordan Lyles was 1 when the Pirates last had a winning season. But, I like the Pirates in 2012. I like Andrew McCutchen and I like their pitching staff. They’re going to stick around all year and, for the first time in a long time, they’ll finish the year above .500!

4.) Cardinals (79-83) With Pujols in SoCal, TLR on the golf course and Chris Carpenter in the training room, I’m predicting the Cardinals will not enjoy the success they’ve had the previous years. I don’t think Kyle Lohse and Lance Berkman can carry this club.

5.) Astros (77-85) This is highly optimistic, but I think Schafer, Castro, and Altuve will have great years and the Astros will be a hell of a lot better than they were in 2011. And, unlike 2011, I think the Astros get a few more breaks in 2012.

6.) Cubs (62-100) You suck, Cubs! Go to hell!

NL Central MVP

            Andrew McCutchen

NL Central Cy Young

            Zack Greinke

NL Central Rookie of the Year

            Zack Cozart

NL Central Manager of the Year

            Clint Hurdle

Blog/Tweep Round-Up

            Bryan from AstrosCounty put together some projections for the upcoming year.

Lee from StrosBros weighs in with his NL Preview.

Jayne from WhatTheHeckBobby is a magnificent resource for Astros minor league news and analysis. Here’s her preview for AAA Oklahoma City, her AA Corpus Christi preview, her A+ Lancaster preview and her A- Lexington preview. This is definitely a must read for Astros fans.

I asked the guys from ClimbingTalsHill a question. Agree with them?

I just started following Jeff on Twitter. I like the way he thinks!

Buca Morris wants you to check out his new jersey.

…and that’s all I got for now!

-Andy

follow me on Twitter or like me on Facebook!  

It was fun while it lasted.

Wait, it’s over?

No, not quite yet.

I admit, I wasn’t excited when Drayton McLane pulled out the pocketbook and dumped $100M on Carlos Lee. I was positive that Lee would rack up a bunch of RBI, hit for some power and be a middle-of-the-order presence for the next 6 years – but I also knew that there were serious holes in Lee’s game that would have to be addressed on the backend of his contract.

I crossed my fingers and hoped for the best.

At the time, I was concerned that Carlos would get fat. I was worried he’d be falling all over himself in leftfield – glove in one hand, chili dog in the other. I was worried he’d become a huge gaping liability. And, at $18-19M per year, would he be worth a fraction of that amount in 2011 or 2012?

I was worried he’d be a National League DH.

This was a relationship that started out reasonably well, but we knew that it couldn’t last. He was Drayton’s second choice. In a way, Carlos Lee was the extremely promiscuous and overweight sister of the Homecoming Queen. The idea was promising, but ultimately reality set in. And, as the great philosopher Tupac Shakur once said, “you can’t turn a hoe into a housewife.” 

That hoe was Carlos Lee.

That queen was Carlos Beltran.

Let me preface this by saying that Drayton McLane may be one of the most complex sports figures in Houston sports history. Drayton really really really really wanted to be a hero. When he said he wanted to be a champion – he meant it! Tragically, he went about it the wrong way. Drayton wanted to take the shortcuts. When Hunsicker left, Drayton realized that fans didn’t come to Minute Maid Park to see how the AAA team was doing, they came for the on-field product. Drayton knew that if he spent money at the Major League level, he could skimp on the draft, scouting and player development - and maybe save a penny. As seen in 2011, this practice proved to be fatal for the Houston Astros. He had built a paper castle. 

Drayton McLane felt bad for being unable to sign Carlos Beltran in 2005. I think he was afraid of being exposed as a fraud. So in 2006, he irresponsibly offered the same money allocated for Beltran to Carlos Lee. 

And, now, in 2012, we’re crossing our fingers that a new owner and a new general manager can clean up the mess.

Let’s be fair to Lee – he has been, as Dennis Green would say, exactly who we thought he was. There were times when an argument could be made that he was worth the money. He hit over .300 and had over 100 RBI in 3 of his 5 years in Houston. He got close to racking up over 100 last year. In a vacuum, Carlos Lee has been a good player. And he was/is a lot of fun. 

In 2011, Lee moved from left to first base. This move can be directly credited to Wallace’s inability to hit and Lee’s inability to play leftfield – this was merely out of necessity, like the bowling alley attendant and her husband who works at the concession stand.

This, in my opinion, was one of the more interesting moves of 2011. Wallace, who was Wade’s crown jewel in the Oswalt deal, had to have played a key role in the new regime’s assessment of Wade’s performance. So, Wade’s decision to allow Mills to bench Wallace in lieu of Lee meant something was up. Surely, Ed Wade wouldn’t have dove on top of his own grenade. I touched on this in an early post. Wallace’s bad habits coupled with Lee’s less-than-stellar trade stock, triggered Lee’s move to first and may have allowed Ed Wade to give his replacement a huge advantage in marketing Carlos Lee.   

In one swoop, Ed Wade wanted to send a message to a.) Brett Wallace and b.) trade Carlos Lee. 

So, before I go any further, I was informed by one of my favorite tweeps, Jayne from whattheheckbobby, that my posts are ultra long and I should offer my readers a resting point. So how about a joke?

Q: What did the suspenders say to the pants?

Give up?

A: “Sup, britches?”

No? Didn’t like it? Okay. 

Ready to continue? 

Now, in 2012, Ed Wade is soaking up the delicious weather in Philadelphia and the Houston Astros are, in more ways than one, stuck with Carlos Lee.  

That’s not such a bad thing, is it?

Jeff Luhnow has come to the proverbial fork in the road in regards to Lee. As of now, Lee has little value. He has some value, but not much. So, if he were traded now and Jim Crane agreed to pick up the check, Carlos Lee could yield a decent prospect from a team looking to upgrade at 1B or DH. I’m not sure how many teams would feel Carlos Lee is an upgrade, so the market might not be hot enough to pique Luhnow’s interest. But, getting rid of Lee may still have value for the Astros – addition by subtraction.

Undoubtedly, having Carlos Lee on the roster causes personnel problems. As we saw this morning, Brian Bixler had a strong case for making the squad and probably would have had Carlos Lee not been in the picture. But, there again, my grandmother when have been my grandfather had she had a… well… you know. 

But the personnel problems go a little deeper than Brian Bixler. 

Say Lee was traded tomorrow, Luhnow would be able to plug Wallace in at 1B and let him take his licks until Singleton or whomever replaces him. We could dub 2012 “The Sink or Swim Year for Brett Wallce.” Perhaps he thrives. Maybe Wallace needs the assurance that come hell or highwater, he’s our guy. Regardless of his batting average, he’s guaranteed a spot – perhaps taking a little pressure off of him will do him some good.

I’m not saying it will or it won’t – just that it is a possibility.

Although Lee is most likely the best offensive player on the club, is keeping him around worth the extra 4 or 5 wins? Is hindering Wallace’s long-term growth worth the extra few wins playing Lee provides? …I’m not sure.

If Luhnow were to hold onto Lee, he might be able to acquire a much better prospect(s). Lee may get hot and guys around the league may get hurt – if that’s the case, Lee could be a valuable piece for a team looking to upgrade or replace… and they shall pay accordingly. In my opinion, that’s a reasonable gamble. If Luhnow is ready to give up on Wallace, why not start Lee and hope his value increases towards the trade deadline. As for Wallace, he can take the bus to Oklahoma City and hope there is still a spot for him when Lee is traded or Chris Johnson stumbles.

Over the next few months, you’re going to read a lot of talk about Carlos Lee, Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson. Jeff Luhnow has a very difficult job and has some serious decisions to make. However, it is not black and white. Whatever decision Jeff Luhnow makes, there will be people who will state that “this is the greatest move in the history of the franchise” and there will be people who question “when did we get Tim Purpura back?”

I’m not 100% sure what to do with Carlos Lee – and neither is anyone else. I doubt Jeff Luhnow is 100% sure what to do with him, either. But, this is the first obstacle of the Jeff Luhnow administration and it will certainly set the tone for his tenure in Houston.  

Let’s cross our fingers. 

-Andy

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If you’re an Astros fan – stop reading this and go here, here or here.

Now that they’re gone, I think we should talk. I know we should talk. Obviously, you’re not an Astros fan. I totally understand and part of me doesn’t really blame you. I get it.  Over the last few years the Astros haven’t done much in the way of keeping Astros fans rooting for the Astros. They have mistreated their fans and, top to bottom, they’ve offered a substandard product.

To be frank, they’ve been downright horrible.

Remember this?

Again, it’s okay – I get it.

I’ve been an Astros fan for as long as I can remember. Honestly, I’ve gotten angry (apoplectic on occasion) with a lot of their bonehead decisions – but I’m as loyal as anyone I know. Sometimes I question whether that is naivety or loyalty.

So, at some point, the Astros became the Peg Bundy of Major League Baseball – they just sat around, ate bonbons and offered nothing to the relationship.

Subsequently, you hopped off the bandwagon. You bought a Rangers hat or a Yankees shirt. The Astros lost you. Or, perhaps you were never on the bandwagon to begin with – and, as much as it pains me to say this, maybe that was the easy road! Maybe that saved you a lot of heartache.

Maybe.

But that is all water under the bridge now.

Today begins a new era in your life. I am prepared to offer you something that will change you for the better! I’m offering you fan amnesty.

What is fan amnesty? 

I am inviting you to jump back on the bandwagon and rekindle your love for the Houston Astros - no hassles, no fuss, no questions asked.

Granted, this is mutually beneficial. I get to go to Astros games without having to sit next to an obnoxious Red Sox fan, and you get an immense sense of pleasure rooting for a young, up n’ comin’ team.

(…and you don’t have to be an obnoxious Red Sox fan.)

You see, the Astros are going to be good again. They’re building the foundation for something special, and this is something that you’re going to want to be a part of. You can be a fan as they build from the ground up! And, if you have fan amnesty, you will not be subjected to the ire of long time Astros fans. No one will call you a “fair-weather fan,” “a band-wagonner,” “a frontrunner” or “a butthole.”

And, because you’ll have fan amnesty – and I will defend your allegiance - if someone ever questions your passion, they can come talk to me! 

Of course, achieving fan amnesty isn’t cheap. You’re going to have to take an oath and you’re going to have to renounce your allegiance to all other teams. I’ll have a file you can open at the bottom of the page – you’re to print it out, sign it, photograph it and email it to me. Also, you’re going to have to make it public by posting the photo of your oath to your Facebook or Twitter pages.

Sounds like a great deal, huh? 

This offer starts today and expires at 6pm CST on April 6^th. That’s five minutes before the Astros face the Rockies to kick off the 2012 baseball season.

After the offer expires, I will make no more deals. That’s it!

Astros fandom is a lot like the Crips street gang – you’re either with us or you’re against us.

In my opinion, this should be a no-brainer.

I think you should be “with us.” 

Otherwise, I might have to stab you.

Houston Astros Fan Amnesty Contract

-Andy 

Six Surefire Astros Bets

In the wake of the New York Giants Super Bowl win and on the brink of March Madness where Eastern North Dakota State Polytechnic at Fargo is sure to make an Elite 8 run, degenerate gamblers everywhere are racing to their bookies to slap big bills on MLB’s safest (and most bourgeois) of teams. Meanwhile in Houston, nary a soul focuses on our beloved hometown nine.

That’s not a bad thing.

It might feel like a slap in the junk, but the fact that the Astros are slip sliding under the radar might be a good thing for our herd of young bucks

I’ve prepared a list of surefire bets and side bets that Astros fans, local and abroad, can put their paychecks up against – a nest egg, if you will, that will surely yield that Christmas money (or divorce settlement money) that will certainly come in handy at some point or another.

1.) Bud Norris will be the Astros lone representative in the All Star Game

Each team gets at least one representative for the All Star game – for now. This year, one lucky Astros player will get to spend 3 lovely July days in beautiful Kansas City, Missouri.

I hope he brings some suntan lotion. 

Last year, Hunter Pence was the only Astros representative – and he was traded shortly thereafter.

Will this year’s Astros All Star representative be traded? 

Easily, I think Wandy and Bud will be the two best pitchers in the club. I’d bet Wandy will have better numbers at the All Star break, but call it a gambler’s hunch, I believe Bud will be getting the nod for the All Star Game. Perhaps Wandy will be traded shortly before the break or Bud will strikeout an assload of people. Or maybe Wandy will be scheduled to start on the Monday before the All Star Game and Brad Mills will ask Tony La- wait, who is going to coach the All Star Game this year? It is supposed to be Tony LaRussa, but he’s retired.

Either way, I think Bud goes to the All-Star Game.

However, I can envision a scenario where another Bud has a direct impact on the Astros’ All Star representative. Perhaps this will be the year Bud Selig, high from atop his throne, finally decides that not every team should be represented for the festivities and kindly has security escort Bud Norris out of the Kauffman Stadium premises while onlookers point and laugh. 

Side Bets

            Bud Norris line going into the All-Star Break: 5-5 / 3.31 / 92Ks
            The high temperature at Kauffman Stadium on July 10^th 2012: 99°
            NL All Star Game Starter: Tommy Hanson
            AL All Star Game Starter: Felix Hernandez
            All Star Game Winner: The National League

2.) Jose Altuve will finish in the top 10 in doubles

I looked over some stats and tried to figure out where certain Astros players would be competitive for the lead league – in a positive category. My eyes kept focusing on Jose Altuve.

As we saw in 2011, Jose Altuve is a quick player with a live bat and isn’t selective in regards to his pitch. He’s fast. He’s the type of guy who can stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples. In 2011, Houston led the National League in doubles. Granted, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn had a lot to do with that, but I believe Jose Altuve is geared up to breakout in 2012. He might not blow people away with a super high batting average, but I think he’s going to find himself on second base quite a bit! 

Side Bets

            Bud Norris will finish in the top 15 in strikeouts.
            JD Martinez will lead the team in homeruns.
            Jose Altuve will lead the team in triples.

3.) Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers will NOT be on the Astros at the end of the year.

Too easy?

The times are a-changin in Houston! Out with the old and in with the new!

The Astros are baseballs deep into rebuilding mode. However, the process has taken 2 years too long – credit Drayton McLane’s insistence that “there’s nothing to see here – move along!” The rebuilding process has taken longer than the construction projects on 59 and 610. It all started way back in 2010 (or what seems like 1864) when Ed Wade’s great-grandfather, Edidiah Wade, dealt Lance Berkman to the Yankees (the baseball team, not the union army) and Oswalt to Philadelphia (the Phillies, not the Athletics). The rebuilding continued in 2011, when Edidiah dealt Hunter Pence to Philadelphia (Phillies, not Athletics), Jeff Keppinger to the Giants (San Francisco, not New York) and Michael Bourn to the Braves (Atlanta, not Boston). Needless to say, this has taken an awfully long time! 

However, it is quite certain that, in 2012, Jeff Luhnow will allow this year’s crop of playoff contenders to grab high-ceiling prospect biscuits and sop up what’s left of Houston’s high priced gravy vets.

Carlos Lee’s value is iffy. On one hand, I can see him putting up respectable numbers and being traded to a contender (provided Diamond Jimmy Crane cuts an extra Lee-arge check for Lee’s remaining paychecks). However, on the other hand, I can see Loafin’ Lee struggling, clearing waivers and getting released in August. Who knows? But, I can assure you: he will not finish the season with the Astros? What’s the point? 

Myers is an interesting case. In my opinion, Myers has the best case for remaining on the team throughout the season. If he’s trucking along and proves to be an average closer, I can see Luhnow seeing Myers’ value as a confidence booster to the wet-behind-the-ears rotation and, eventually, electing to keep him around. However, if the Astros prove to be historically bad, Luhnow might post Myers on Craigslist, take him to the salvage yard and sell him for parts or see what he can get on the trade market.

Wandy Rodriguez is an opportunity Luhnow cannot afford to pass up. I didn’t think Wandy would be traded last year and I didn’t think he’d be traded this offseason – but I do think Wandy is ripe for the picking, and his trade value peaks as the deadline approaches. Fact of the matter is, Wandy is a consistent known commodity and will be highly sought after in July. As of now, teams are looking at their rotations and thinking, “sure, I might be able to get by with this,” but, in July, they’ll have a better idea of what they want and need – and they’ll most certainly be blowing up Jeff Luhnow’s beeper.

Side Bets

            Carlos Lee will finish the season with the Blue Jays.
            Brett Myers will finish the season with the Cardinals.
            Wandy Rodriguez will finish the season with the Dodgers.
            Brandon Lyon will finish the season with the Long Island Ducks.

4.) JA Happ will have a respectable season

I firmly believe the Astros will fly through pitchers quicker than Snooki and The Situation fly through bottles of Valtrex. However, I believe two pitchers will remain in the rotation from wire to wire: Bud Norris and JA Happ.

JA Happ, you say? He was terrible in 2011!

Yes, I know. But, 2012 is going to be way different for the Northwestern southpaw. After last year’s trade deadline, Ed Wade gave Happ a bus ticket and told him to get his ass to Oklahoma. Later in August, Happ came back to Houston and was a new man. After his return, he made 6 starts, gave up only 10 runs and registered a 2.43 ERA to close out the year. He also punched out 9 Cincinnati batters in 6 innings on September 19^th, a mark he hadn’t hit in over 2 years. Impressive.

This was a turning point. Going to Oklahoma and seeing Mudcats live and in person proved to be the come-to-Jesus Happ so desperately needed. The fact that Happ worked out his kinks, was given a chance to redeem himself and was able to prove to himself to the organization was, a Brad Lidge would say, f-ing huge. 

I’m not expecting him to be a world-beater – but Happ will not be out-classed in 2012 like he was in 2011.

Side Bets

            The Rotation in April:
                   Norris, Wandy, Happ, Hernandez, Duke

            The Rotation in September:
                   Norris, Happ, Weiland, Lyles, Keuchel

5.) The Astros will NOT be the worst team in baseball.

On August 22^nd, the Astros were within striking distance of the Baltimore Orioles. Rather, they were within 6.5 games – when you’re as bad as they were, that’s “within striking distance.” The Astros had a reasonably favorable schedule while the Orioles had a month full of Yankees, Red Sox and Rays. It appeared that the Astros could conceivably overtake the Orioles and avoid being dubbed the worst team in baseball.

But, as was the rest of 2011, it wasn’t meant to be.

On August 22^nd, as I was rallying Astros fans with #BeatBaltimore Twitter hashtags, the Orioles embarked on a 6 game winning streak. They went on to finish out the season winning 22 of their final 37 games.

The Astros – not so much. 

The Astros were, by far, the worst team in baseball and were the only team to register more than 100 losses. The worst team in the American League, the Twins, narrowly escaped triple digit losses with a 2 game winning streak to close out the season.

In 2012, the Astros will NOT be the worst team in baseball.

So which team (or teams) might be worse than the Astros?

Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles are in an extremely tough division (which was the logic I used on August 22^nd). Throughout the early part of the century, they really struggled against the Yankees and Red Sox – and that’s not going to change in 2012. However, in recent years, they’ve become the doormat for the Rays and Blue Jays, as well. They lost Luke Scott to free agency and traded their best pitcher to Colorado – this looks to be a long year for the Orioles… but at least they have cool new old hats.

If there is any consolation, like the Astros, they have an extremely young team – so there’s help on the way. But, what little help actually arrives in 2012 won’t be enough to be competitive in the AL East. And they will surely be in the conversation for the worst team in baseball. 

Chicago Cubs – The lovable losers had an interesting offseason. After going 71-91, the Cubs lost their best player, Aramis Ramirez, to the Brewers and lost their most problematic player, Carlos Zambrano, to the Miami Marlins. (Yes - still weird saying “Miami Marlins.”)

However, boy genius, Theo Epstein, came aboard with hopes of World Series titles for the Northsiders. I’m not counting on it in 2012, though. Despite playing in a very mediocre division, the Cubs could be especially bad. I’m predicting they’ll be awful. My guess is that the Astros and Cubs battle for 5^th place with the loser having the inside track for the worst record in baseball.

Kansas City Royals – Doesn’t it seem like every year the experts predict “this is the year the Royals make a statement” and every year the Royals fail to meet expectations? Last year, there was a lot of talk about the Royals finally being competitive – they managed only 71 wins. This year, with Aaron Crow, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, the Royals finally look like they’ll be ready to compete… or so they say.

Finally.

I’m not falling for it this year.  

Minnesota Twins – In 2011, the Minnesota Twins were the second worst team in baseball. The Twins have a track record of being competitive despite being relatively frugal with their payroll. The Twins were plagued with injuries and 2012 presents more question marks than it does exclamation points. In 2012, the Twins could prove to be very, VERY good – or very, VERY bad.

I’m predicting they’ll be very, VERY bad. However, someone has to win when the Royals and Twins play. Right?

New York Mets – The Mets are a mess. I love it, too, because I really hate the Mets. I like Terry Collins – but I hate, hate, hate the Mets. They lost Jose Reyes to free agency, traded Carlos Beltran last July and now find themselves banking on a broken former Cy Young winner and “superstar” who had a pretty awful 2011. The Mets (77-85) finished 5 games ahead of the, then, Florida Marlins. However, with the recent acquisitions by the, now, Miami Marlins (namely former Met, Jose Reyes), the Marlins will likely blow past the Mets in 2012.

…and so will everyone else.

I cannot imagine a scenario in which the Mets finish any better than they did last year. As a matter of fact, it seems their bottom-dwelling competitors, the Marlins and Nationals, got better while they got worse.

I’m definitely picking the Mets to finish worse than the Astros.       

Side Bets

            Top 5 picks in 2013’s draft.

                        1. Mets
                        2. Orioles
                        3. Cubs
                        4.) Twins
                        5.) Astros

6.) The Astros will NOT lose 100 games in 2012.

As Sean Pendergast pointed out, Vegas projects the Astros to win 63.5 – so they don’t think the Astros will lose 100, either. They have the Astros just a game and a half under losing 100 – so there’s not a lot of room for error!

Seeing that the Astros won only 56 games in 2011, the casinos are projecting the Astros will be better by more than 7 games. They are projecting more than 7 games despite the fact that Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence contributed to last year’s win total and despite the fact that the Astros are actively looking to unload veterans at the trade deadline.

But the Astros only need to win exactly 7 games to avoid losing 100 – not “more than 7.”

Will the Astros go at least 63-99?

Absolutely.

The Astros are taking baby steps. While it is safe to say they will field a slightly better team in 2012 – the Astros effort to improve on last year’s win total has little to do with the on-field improvement the Astros made from last year’s squad.

Let that soak in for a moment.  

Here’s why: while the Astros, at the bottom of the division, are inching their way towards respectability – the top of the division has gotten substantially worse. In 2011, the only two NL Central teams with winning records made the playoffs – and both lost their headlining player this off-season. Everyone else (Astros, Cubs, Reds and Pirates) had losing records!

Parity returns?

Albert Pujols has left the Cardinals for the American League, the Brewers lost Prince Fielder to the Tigers and the Pirates or Cubs failed to transform themselves into world-beaters or, at the very least, legitimate playoff contenders. The Reds may have evolved themselves from bottom-dweller to playoff contender – but they’re not better than the Brewers or Cardinals. Yes, the Reds got Mat Latos and Ryan Madson, the Cubs got Anthony Rizzo and the Pirates got A.J. Burnett – but, as a whole, with the loss of the two best players in the division, the NL Central has gone from a decent division with two playoff berths to a very run-of-the-mill group of mediocre teams that wouldn’t sniff the playoffs in a respectable division.

In my opinion, this appears to be a division that can be won with 86 wins. Theoretically, a team can win the division and everyone else can finish below .500.

This bodes well for the Astros. While they will most likely compete for “not last” with the Cubs and Pirates (my guess is the Cubs), we can expect that the Astros will certainly not lose at the same frequency this year as they did last year. Last year, the Astros went 3-12 against Milwaukee and 5-10 against St. Louis – I’m confident they will improve against those teams.

Also, the Astros will avoid the Rays and Red Sox in interleague play and replace them with the White Sox and the perennial bottom-dwelling Royals.

Unlikely but possible, the Astros can go .500 – I’m serious. However, I’m predicating the Astros will win 74 games.

The Astros are in a weaker division and they drew favorable interleague play opponents – simply put, this is a case of addition by subtraction.

The Astros will NOT lose 100 games in 2012 – and they won’t lose more than 90, either.

Side Bets

            The Astros will go 74-88.
            The Astros will finish ahead of the Chicago Cubs.
            The Turdinals will win the NL Central.

Bonus Bets

I will tell over 100 Carlos Lee fat jokes (probably the same 4 jokes 25 times each.)
I will attend 2 away games – Colorado and possibly somewhere else.
I will not get any food on my Jim Deshaies jersey.
I will say some ridiculous things and get unfollowed on Twitter.
I will say something awesome and get refollowed by those who have unfollowed me.

You have some choices to make: you can be excited about this club or you can be pessimistic. Baseball is supposed to be fun. Winning is a lot of fun – but losing is way better than having to spend your day mowing the grass or washing your car.

If you’re reading this blog, you’re lucky. It means that you’re not only excited about 2012, but you’re an Astros fan when being an Astros fan isn’t necessarily cool. Look around you - Dallas Rangers fans are overtaking our city. Look around you – look at all the Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals and Cubs jerseys. Right now, after 106 losses, some fans have given up hope and have jumped off the bandwagon.

But not you.

You weren’t just there for the good times. You weren’t just there for Chris Burke’s homerun or Mike Scott’s no-hitter. You weren’t just there for the Biggio and Bagwell days. You weren’t just there when Roger Clemens signed.

You are not a fair-weather fan. 

You’ve been there all along. You sat through 106 losses. You sat through realignment. You sat through no World Series wins. You sat through the heartache. You were there.

This is your team.

And, when the Astros win – when the Astros finally make it to the World Series and win – and, I promise you, they will – you can tell everyone that you’ve been on the bandwagon all along. And you can take a piece of that win for yourself because you’ll deserve it. 

-Andy

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February, other than being a month I am still unable to spell, is, in my opinion, the perfect time of year. The snow begins to melt, baseball players file into camp and kids everywhere embrace the realization that they’re, in fact, racing down the homestretch towards summer vacation.

It is a great time to be alive.

But, sometimes February isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Sometimes the excitement is overshadowed. Sometimes February is as cold and dull as January. Sometimes our favorite baseball players are missing from camp due to retirement or trades. Sometimes kids have to go through scores of silly standardized tests and deal with belligerent bullies before they can even consider thinking about basking in the glow summer vacation.

As the Houston Astros embark on their final National League campaign, I am hoping we get more sunshine than rain. I hope we embrace today’s players the way we embraced yesterday’s. I hope the front office breezes through their standardized tests. I hope the Astros overcome their bullies.

…and make no mistake about it – the Houston Astros have their fair share of bullies. Quite frankly, it is an unfair share of bullies. What exactly are we doing about it?

February is also the time of year when wimpy kids grow sick and tired of being picked on by bigger and badder bullies. Day after day of giving the bully your lunch money wears awfully thin. Being called names and getting stuffed into lockers becomes embarrassing. This is the time of year when wimpy kids have had enough. Usually around this time of year, an unsuspecting bully walks up to a wimpy kid demanding he fork over his lunch money but instead receives a right hook to the jaw.

This is when the bullying stops.

When will the people of Houston deliver a right hook to Major League Baseball? When will the Astros demand their lunch money back?

It should come as little surprise that the Houston Astros will not be wearing their official Colt .45 uniforms on throwback nights. Instead they’ll be wearing a generic jersey that has the Colt lettering but without the gun. The Astros requested to use the original jersey but, the big bad bully, Major League Baseball shot (no pun intended) them down.

It seems having a gun on their jersey promotes violence – and MLB wants no part of that. MLB takes a hard stance on gun violence… but hardly a hard stance on anything else.

Baseball blatantly promotes steroids to our kids… but an illustration of a gun crosses the line? MLB allows teams to set high ticket prices to keep riff-raff (like families of 4) from enjoying a baseball game… but an illustration of a gun crosses the line? MLB allows markets like Kansas City and Pittsburgh to act as minor league affiliates for large market teams… but an illustration of a gun crosses the line?

The old saying goes: illustrations of guns don’t kill people, illustrations of bullets do. Or is the saying: illustrations of guns don’t kill baseball franchises, Bud Seligs do?

Is a gun any more or less offensive than tomahawks on the Braves uniforms? Is a gun any more or less offensive than having three baseball parks named after brewing companies while still claiming you support Josh Hamilton’s fight against alcoholism? I wonder how Nick Adenhart’s family feels about Coors Field or Miller Park – any guesses?

MLB is just trying to make a stand on something insignificant while remaining absent from more pressing issues concerning their sport – like drug/alcohol abuse or domestic violence. People from both walks of life can agree that illustrations of guns are exponentially safer than actual guns… or actual tomahawks… or Milton Bradley. After debating and analyzing, when you discover a correlation between illustrations of guns on a borderline obscure jersey and gun violence – you have too much time on your hands and are ignoring your bigger fish to fry. At the very least, on the rare occasion that child becomes interested in the Colt .45 gun logo, could it be a valuable tool for parents to utilize when discussing gun safety?

While on it’s own, it’s not really a big deal – in total, it is just another time the Astros are stuffed into a locker or forced to give up their lunch money. Astros fans are incensed with the removal of the gun… but where were these people when MLB was trashing our history and not just our logo?

I’ve been screaming this all along. …and now people are complaining about this on Facebook and putting the Colt .45 logo as their Twitter avatar? Where were these people yesterday when they were taking so much more than just our logo?

Defend Houston has become the de facto theme of my blog. It burns me up that MLB is pulling this hypocritical bullshit on our team – but it burns me up doubly that Astros fans are just now getting pissed off at the way they’re treated. There are not a lot of fans or bloggers willing to clinch their fist and deliver the right hook. We are either cowards or ignorant – or both!

Houstonians are developing a reputation. Nationally, we’re discounted as a sports city. MLB has, on numerous occasions, forced us into positions that have compromised the good of our city and fair play. Even Houston sports radio makes fun of Houston.

This is just another example.

Houstonians play the part, too. Houstonians take it all in stride.

We’ll continue to get picked on, too. MLB will continue to have their way with us and the rest of the country will continue to laugh at us while looking down their noses. 

…until we demand our lunch money back.
…until we deliver that right hook. 

-Andy

Roll up your sleeves, my lil chickadees, because this WILL get messy. You’re about to get knee deep into The Houston Sports Counterplot’s 2012 Astros Top Ten Prospect List. Things are going to be a bit different this year than they were last year …that makes sense because a lot has changed. What’s changed? I’ve changed. You’ve changed. The Astros have changed (leagues)…

Due to three significant trades and the 2011 draft, there are several new prospects in the system. Also, four guys from last year’s list made their Major League debuts in 2011 – 1. Jordan Lyles, 5. Jimmy Paredes, 7. J.D. Martinez, and 9. Jose Altuve… so they’re off this year’s list. Get to steppin’, son! There are a few guys on 2011’s list who struggled in last year’s campaign – so I left them off this year’s list (but I refuse to give up hope… they’ll be back.) Also, there are two guys who failed to make the list because… well… I can’t think of a good reason other than I feel the other 10 are more worthy. You’ll know which two I’m talking about after checking out the list. I’m still kicking myself!

Leaving good players off the Top Ten Prospect List isn’t a bad thing. It’s actually quite the opposite – it’s a great thing! A terrific thing! The talent level in the farm system is substantially better in 2012 than it was in 2011. This is a function of good drafts, good trades and player development. Enough Ed Wade love for you? I’d rather hate myself for leaving a guy off the list than hate myself for including a guy - you know what I mean? I determined there are 15 guys worthy of spots on the list, but unfortunately, there are only 10 slots to fill – some guys got left off.

After much deliberation, I’ve determined that each prospect that I have on the list is deserving of his spot. There’ll probably be a little disagreement here and there – but this is my list – if you don’t like it, get your own blog.

So without further ado…

The Houston Sports Counterplot’s 2012 Astros Top Ten Prospect List.

History
2011: Drafted in the 1^st round (11^th overall) by the Houston Astros

Where was he last year?
At UConn, then he got drafted by the Astros and was sent to Tri-City.

Oh, so tell me more!
Last year, in Irvine, I saw George Springer play centerfield as the Huskies took on the UCI Anteaters. At the time, I was disappointed because I was hoping to see Matt Barnes pitch. Little did I know that I was probably sitting next to multiple Astros scouts taking notes on Springer. I had no idea Springer was even on their radar. Ha! Well – now I know.

After graduating high school, Springer was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 48^th round but elected to play collegiate ball at the University of Connecticut. It should be noted that the high school Springer graduated from is only 30 minutes from the high school Jeff Bagwell graduated from. Snazzy! As a matter of fact, as George Springer’s mother was giving birth to him, Jeff Bagwell was probably doing kegstands no more than 15 minutes away at the University of Hartford.

Springer only registered 33 plate appearances and 5 hits for Tri-City in 2011 – but of the 5 hits, 4 of them were for extra bases. Small sample size, I know.

In the amateur ranks, Springer had a very big year in 2011. He was named the 2011 Big East Player of the Year and was an All-American First-Team selection for Perfect Game USA, National Collegiate Baseball Writers of America and Louisville Slugger. He was a Second-Team All-American according to Baseball America.

Springer’s name is peppered throughout UConn’s record books, as he is the school leader in homeruns and runs scored. He is second in hits, stolen bases, RBIs and total bases. He is third in doubles, triples and walks.

Springer has a very intriguing mix of power and speed. He’s a plus defender and has a more than adequate arm. Once he arrives in Houston, he might be the closest thing to a true five-tool player since Carlos Beltran. 

So, when can I expect to see him in Houston?
Although Springer has been invited to the major league camp this year, I’m not convinced that Jeff Luhnow will fast track players in the same fashion that Ed Wade did in 2011. However, Springer may be major league ready by the end of the year. I assume he will start out in Lancaster and make his way to Corpus Christi within the first two or three months. Other than Austin Wates, who I suspect will be assigned to Corpus Christi, there is not much in the way blocking Springer from Houston – unless Jordan Schafer lives up to his potential and gives away his bong collection.

Although I do not expect Springer to see AAA in 2012, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get called-up in September. I’ll predict he’ll be a full-time major leaguer by May of 2013.

Can you be more specific?
Okay. Opening Day 2013.

History
2011: Traded from the Phillies to the Astros along with Jarred Cosart, Josh Zeid and Domingo Santana for Hunter Pence.
2009: Drafted in the 8^th round (257^th overall) by the Philadelphia Phillies

Where was he last year?
He spent 2011 in high A ball – first in the Phillies organization and then in the Astros.

Oh, so tell me more!
If first you don’t succeed – offer Hunter Pence. In 2011, when Ed Wade was trading Roy Oswalt to the Phillies, one has to believe he fought tooth and nail to acquire Jonathan Singleton. Of course, Oswalt’s no-trade clause had the Astros organization by the short curlies and Wade was left holding his dong – but, when 2011 came around and Wade was dangling Hunter Pence in between the Braves and Phillies, the Phillies offered their prized 1B/LF prospect and Wade got his man. 

Singleton is currently ranked as the 73rd best prospect according to Baseball Prospectus. Prior to 2011, Singleton was rated as the 39^th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America and in 2011, did nothing to disappoint. 

Singleton’s long-term position with the Astros is up in the air. Somewhat. A lot of it is contingent on Brett Wallace. If Wallace plays as well as he was touted, Singleton might move to leftfield or be a full-time DH. If Wallace flounders as he did in 2011, I would expect Singleton to continue to develop at 1B and be earmarked for that position when Luhnow & Co. feel he’s ready. As of now, Wallace is taking grounders at 3rd base which may be a sign that Singleton will move into Houston unabated. 

Singleton was blocked in Philadelphia by Ryan Howard and got a significantly long look in left field. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Singleton take a hack at the outfield once again. At 20, he’s still young and has plenty of time to hone his skills – while big, he’s quick and athletic, so patrolling the short porch at Minute Maid Park might not be a tall task for the Singleton.

Again, I think it is more likely than not that Singleton remains at first base. 

Singleton has a live bat and is expected to hit for power and average at the big league level. He’s going to swing the bat an awful lot. Granted Lancaster is a hitter’s paradise, Singleton registered a .333 batting average and hit 4 dingers in 148 plate appearances. He even notched a triple! However, he only walked 14 times and struckout 40 times. For all of 2011, he struck out 123 times. He’s going to have to be a little more selective and that’s why I believe he’ll repeat at Lancaster - which isn’t a bad thing because he’s still severely young for the California League. However, it should be noted that Baseball America stated, well before the trade that sent him to Houston, that Singleton had “the best plate discipline” among the Phillies minor leaguers.

Baseball America also said that he was the Phillies “best power hitter.”

Sounds good.

So, when can I expect to see him in Houston?
Like Springer, Singleton will be headed to Kissimmee to rub elbows with the upper crust – he’s going to get a feel of what it’s like to be a big leaguer from such grizzled veterans like Jose Altuve and JD Martinez. Wouldn’t it be nice if Singleton went Pujols-mode (aka Luke Scott-mode) and hit his way onto the opening day roster? I doubt that happens… but, well… it could. 

Singleton is a difficult cat to peg – I can see him needing extra time to develop, but on the other hand, I can see him dominating every single level and making a beeline to Houston.

Realistically, at 20, Singleton is still pretty raw. However, I expect him to dominate the California League and find himself in Corpus Christi by the All-Star break. In 2013, I think he’ll find his way to AAA to start the season. If he’s hitting in Oklahoma City, I could see him finding a way into the lineup by the end of next year or on opening day 2014. 

Can you be more specific?
Jonathan Singleton makes his Astros debut September 1^st, 2013.

History
2010: Traded from the Phillies to the Astros along with Anthony Gose and JA Happ for Roy Oswalt

2008: Signed by the Philadelphia Phillies as an non-drafted free agent

Where was he last year?
He was in the Astros organization. He started out in Lancaster and got promoted to Corpus Christi.

Oh, so tell me more!
What a difference a year makes! I couldn’t find a spot for Villar in the top 10 last year and now he’s jumped all the way to third! (Of course, this is generally where I lose my credibility… so, you can quit reading now.)

In my opinion, Villar projects as a 8 or 9-hole hitter who is going to possess speed and find ways to get on base. He’s definitely going to be a guy that catchers need to keep an eye on at first because he’ll swipe bags on noodle arms.

I’m not 100% convinced Villar will hit at the major league level – but I am convinced that he’ll be able to pick it at shortstop. As far as Astros shortstops go, he’s a lot closer to Adam Everett than he is Miguel Tejada. Villar is going to steal plenty of would-be hits and make for a creative double-play battery with whomever is the Astros 2B at the time.

You might think I have Villar kind of high, but I think Villar is set up to be a solid major leaguer with a nice career. He’s less of a question mark than most of the Astros prospects, in my opinion.

So, when can I expect to see him in Houston?
Villar has some work to do with his bat before he’s considered a legit candidate for the shortstop position. 2012 is going to be the year that Jed Lowrie gets a crack at the position. If he has shown he cannot hold the position down, I’d expect to see Villar in Houston sometimes within the year.

Can you be more specific?
September 1^st, 2012.

History
2011: Traded from the Phillies to the Astros along with Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid and Domingo Santana for Hunter Pence

2008: Drafted in the 38^th round (1156^th overall) by the Philadelphia Phillies

Where was he last year?
Cosart was with the Phillies class A affiliate in Clearwater, Florida. After he was traded to the Astros, he was assigned to AA Corpus Christi.

Oh, So Tell Me More!
Jarred Cosart is the second player from the Hunter Pence trade and (so far) third from the Phillies organization to make my list. …and he’s 4^th. Our farm system is what it is because of the Philadelphia Phillies. Perhaps Ed Wade could have gotten better deals for Pence and Oswalt – but, Singleton, Villar and Cosart are damn fine players and will be featured in Houston at some point or another. 

Cosart has been named to the MLB Future’s team twice (2010, 2011) and has recently been named the 36^th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America and the 48th best prospect per Baseball Prospectus. While in the Phillies organization, Baseball America stated that Cosart had the “best fastball” of all Phillie farm hands.

Let me explain why I have Villar over Cosart. I fully acknowledge that Cosart has a higher ceiling. Cosart is a top of the rotation prospect who, if he lives up to his potential, will represent the Astros in all-star games. Villar, on the other hand, might not ever make it to an all-star game, but is slick in the field, does the little things and will probably never get the credit he deserves. As far as value to the organization, I’d have to give a slight edge to Cosart, but I think Villar is a better prospect because Cosart still needs to prove he can stay healthy. There is no doubt in my mind that Villar will be a good major leaguer – I cannot say the same thing for Cosart.

If Cosart can stay away from injuries – the sky is the limit for this fellow. Villar, simply put, is more of a sure thing.  

Cosart really has everything the Astros look for in a pitcher. He’s big. He throws hard. He’s from Texas. And I’d like to think he was named after The Old Man. (Lynn is Cosart’s middle name.)

His 4.71 ERA is a bit deceiving. In his seven games with the Corpus Christi Hooks, he struggled in two games. In his first appearance with the Hooks, Cosart went 6 innings and gave up two hits, no runs while striking out four – I suppose there were no butterflies after being traded to your hometown organization. Seventeen days later, Cosart went 6 scoreless innings again while giving up only 1 hit and striking out five. The two starts August 7^th and September 4^th really killed his AA season stats. In those two starts, he gave up a combine 16 earned runs in 7.1 innings – ouch! Without those two games, Cosart’s ERA would have been 0.93. Of course, if my aunt stood up to pee, she’d be my uncle – I get it.

The talent is there. The potential is there. If Cosart can stay healthy – my goodness has Houston found a gem!

When will we see him in Houston?
This is another tough to figure out. I believe Cosart will start the year in Corpus and be in Oklahoma City by May. I can envision a scenario where Cosart pitches out of his mind at the beginning of the season and gets fast tracked to Houston. If Myers and/or Wandy is traded and Cosart is tearing apart the Texas League, he could be in Houston by the trade deadline or sooner.

If I wanted to go out on a limb, I’d predict Cosart would be in Houston on August 1^st – however, I’ll play it safe and predict he’ll be in Houston on September 1^st.

…if he stays healthy.

Can you be more specific?
Do you want me to be more specific than September 1^st, 2012? Fine. Bold prediction: Cosart will be a September call-up, arrive in Houston on the 1^st and make his first start for the Astros on September 3^rd against the Pirates. He’ll throw 5 innings, strikeout 3 and give up 2 runs. How’s that?

History
2011: Traded from the Phillies to the Astros along with Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid and Domingo Santana for Hunter Pence
2009: Signed by the Philadelphia Phillies as an international free agent 

Where was he last year?
Santana spent the majority of the season with Philadelphia’s A affiliate Lakewood in the Sally League – once he was traded to Houston, he was assigned to Houston’s A affiliate Lexington.

Oh, so tell me more!
Domingo Santana is the third prospect from the Hunter Pence trade to make our top 10 list. Actually, he is the third prospect in that specific trade in the top 5! Santana was the “player to be named later” who didn’t officially move to the Houston organization until two weeks after Pence was shipped to Philadelphia.

At the time of the trade, Santana was arguably the best outfield prospect in the Phillies organization. Better than Dominic Brown - you could argue that!

At 6’5” and 205lbs, Santana has a big frame and a projectable body. As is the case with many guys his age, the speed is there, but the ability to use it to his advantage lacks considerably. However, in 6 attempts in 2011, he was only caught once. Santana is going to need to cut down on strikeouts if he wants to move up to Lancaster or Corpus Christi. Santana struck out 135 in 467 plate appearances, which was 3^rd in the South Atlantic League.  While at Lakewood, he was 3^rd on his team in OPS (.780) and led Lexington (1.109) for a combined .833 for the whole season.

Santana has been described as “toolsy” and does a lot of things well. Like Springer and Ovando, Santana appears to have the make-up of a 5-tool player – but he’s not nearly as polished as Springer, but he’s further along than Ovando.

I suppose he will begin the season in Lancaster. Springer, Singleton and Santana in the same line-up? That should be fun!

So, when can I expect to see him in Houston?
Santana is probably a few years away – maybe 2 or 3. …or 4. 

Can you be more specific?
Fine. 3. He spends a year in Lancaster, a year with the Hooks and then to Oklahoma City. He makes his debut in April 10^th 2015.

History
2009: Drafted in the 7^th round (221^st overall) by the Houston Astros

Where was he last year?
He spent most of the year mowing though the Texas League and got promoted to Oklahoma City towards the end of the season.

Oh, so tell me more!
When Keuchel first started making waves, I was calling him Kooshell… not because it is an endearing nickname – it was because I couldn’t pronounce it. Evidently, it rhymes with “Michael.” We’ll go with that.

…I could be wrong, though.

The southpaw from the University of Arkansas spent most of 2011 in Corpus Christi where he posted a 3.17 ERA in 20 games as a starter. Once Keuchel was promoted to Oklahoma City, he eased into the rotation and made 7 starts. Oklahoma City proved to be a little more challenging than Round Rock as he saw his ERA inflate to a robust 7.50. However, like Cosart, Keuchel was guilty of inconsistency. He didn’t exactly dominate when he was “on,” but he held his own in his first taste of AAA baseball.

Keuchel’s stuff is not considered overpowering although he will touch the low 90’s. He’s going to pick up his share of strikesouts, though – his best pitch, a change-up, will be his bread and butter at the next level. 

When will we see him in Houston?
Keuchel is going to get a look in spring training, but I doubt he’ll find a place on the roster until some trades are made. If Cosart pass him in the pecking order or if Lyles struggles, Keuchel could find himself in Houston sooner rather than later. I suspect he’ll remain the first of the prospects to get a call – so I imagine June of 2012 at the earliest.

Can you be more specific?
I’m think Keuchel will be the first or second guy called up in the event Myers and Rodriguez are traded. Since I think both Myers and Rodriguez will be dealt - I’ll take a stab in the dark and guess Keuchel will make a start on August 4th.  

History
2010: Signed with the Houston Astros as an international free agent

Where was he last year?
Ovando spent 2011 stateside with the Greenville Astros. Although, it was expected that he’d go to Kissimmee or spend a year with the DOSL team, Ovando was able to leap into the Appy League and hold his own.

Oh! So tell me more!
Last year, I had Ariel Ovando as the Astros second best prospect. I wrote about how he has the most star potential in the Astros farm system. At 17, he’s still a baby and has a long way to go before he even sniffs a plate appearance in Houston. Do I still think he has the most star potential than any other Astros minor leaguer? Hmmm. 

So, why did he drop to 7^th? Honestly, it has nothing to do with Ovando and everything to do with the new acquisitions the Astros have made in the last year. Of the 6 players before Ovando, only Villar and Keuchel spent the entire 2011 season in the Astros organization. This is strictly about the job Ed Wade has done in restocking the farm system. In my opinion, Villar and Keuchel are the most major league ready of all the Astros prospects, so had Ed Wade not moved Pence or Bourn, Ovando would have been looking at top billing at some point in the season. So, do I still think he has the most star potential than any other Astros minor leaguer? Hmmm.

Obviously, there was a lot of talk about how I had Ovando too high in last year’s list and there will probably be a lot of talk about how high I have him in this year’s list – but, I still firmly believe that Ariel Ovando has the highest ceiling, the most star potential of all Astros prospects.

Really.

Being that Ovando is extremely young and extremely raw, there is no sense in placing him near Springer or Singleton because there is no guarantee that Ovando will ever put it together. I think it is more likely that Springer and Singleton will be better major leaguers and possibly perennial all-stars – but I can envision a scenario where Ovando blows past both of them once he matures. On potential, Ovando is in a class all by himself. On polish and/or projectability, he lags further behind anyone else on this list – hence, the 7^th ranking. 

Ovando had his ups and downs in the Appy League in 2011 where he was the youngest guy on the team by a solid year. When Ovando connects – he hits the ball far. He hit .235 and had a .647 OPS. He was 3^rd on the team in RBIs and led the team in triples. Despite not attempting a stolen base, he shows above average speed for his 6’4” and 190lbs build. Honestly, he’s probably not used to being as big as he is and will likely become more of a threat as he grows into his body. Also, Ovando displays a strong arm and improving defense.

I expect he will spend another year in Greenville honing his skills.

Ovando is project but is showing some serious signs of life. The tools are in place, but the question is whether Ovando will be able to put it all together. He’s a diamond in the rough. If Ovando lives up to the hype - we could be looking at something very special.

So, when can I expect to see him in Houston?
It’s going to be awhile. As I said, I think he spends another year in Greenville. At the earliest, I would project Ovando to find himself in Houston by the time he is 21 – which will be around 2015. However, I suspect Jeff Luhnow will take his time with Ovando and bring the kid up in 2016.

Can you be more specific?
Okay. July 20, 2016. Why? I don’t know.

History
2010: Drafted in the 1^st round (8^th overall) by the Houston Astros

Where was he last year?
DeLino DeShields Jr spent 2011 with the Lexington Legends in the Sally League. As DeShields acclimates to a new position, he still continues to be an intriguing prospect. For DeShields, this is a year of transition.

Oh! So tell me more!
Initially, I had a problem putting DeShields on this list. I know there are guys that I left off the list whom I think belong here – For example, I think Adrian Houser, Jack Armstrong, Paul Clemens or Austin Wates should have made the list. Wates is going to be an outstanding player and as I am writing this I am kicking myself for leaving him off the list. Also, I have DeShields higher than Paul Clemens and Telvin Nash. Clemens barely missed the list. 

So, why did DeShields make it to 8^th ahead of others? Potential. Pure unharnessed potential. DeShields could very well be the best athlete in the organization. 

…and he’s been clocked at 4.27 in a 40. 

Drafted as a CF, DeShields spent all of 2011 in Lexington playing 2B and did an outstanding job considering his limited experience at the position.

Statistically, he struggled in 2011, but he had a lot of adjusting to do as a 18 year old in class A. 2011 was a year of adapting and a year of adjustment – 2012 should show quite a bit of improvement, but I think next year should be the year we know what kind of prospect DeLino DeShields Jr really is. Like Ovando, there’s a lot of question marks surrounding this young man – but it is hard to ignore what a superior athlete he is.

Coming out of suburban Atlanta, DeShields was drafted 8^th overall in the 2010.

He has a short and stocky build, quick feet and strong hands. He’s built more like a tailback than he is a 2B. Although, DeShields seems more like a project than a slam dunk, he possess a lot of the intangibles that are common for successful major leaguers. DeSheild has great instincts and has a very quick bat. With adjustments to his swing, DeShields should start developing power numbers.

Bottom line is that DeShields has athleticism that you just can’t teach. Is he going to become a good baseball player? Time will tell. 

So, when can I expect to see him in Houston?
Like Ovando, it’s hard to tell. I could see DeShields becoming a star or petering out into oblivion. He’s a project and he’s not going to fly through the system like Singleton will. DeShields is going to take baby steps, but he’ll get there. I’m thinking it will take DeShields another 4 years to get to Houston.

Can you be more specific?
Opening Day 2016.

History
2009: Drafted in the 3^rd round (100^th overall) by the Houston Astros

Where was he last year?
Nash spent the majority of 2011 in Lexington with the Astros low A affiliate.

Oh! So tell me more!
Telvin Nash is a huge beneficiary of realignment. Predominately a 1B/OF, Nash projects as a DH in the majors. If the Astros were staying the national league, this spot would belong to Austin Wates.

Nash is a big kid. He’s a solid 6’1”, but has a stout 230lb frame with room for growth. As far as his body is concerned, I’ve heard him compared to Ryan Howard – right now, that’s probably an accurate assessment, however, I think Nash will end up being a little more cut and defined than Howard, Nash has legs like Danny Tartabull… I think, body-wise, he might be closer to Frank Thomas than he is Ryan Howard by the time he reaches the majors.

Nash, who missed two months after busting up his hand, hit 14 homeruns in 268 At-bats. Telvin’s most memorable moment of 2011 was in Spring Training when he hit a mammoth shot off of Braves’ RHP Cristhian Martinez. Brian McTaggart stated that is was “possibly the longest homerun in the history of Champion Stadium.” Also noteworthy, on April 17^th, Nash, Lexington’s clean-up hitter, went 5-6 with 3 HR, 2B and 4R.

While in Lexington, and on limited playing time due to injuries, Nash had an OPS of .858 and

At 20, I expect Nash to start the year in Lexington with a promotion to Lancaster in the near future.

So, when can I expect to see him in Houston?
I think he’ll be the opening day DH in 2014.

Can you be more specific?
Than “Opening Day 2014?” Okay… he’ll probably bat 6^th or 7^th. Ugh.

History
2009: Drafted in the 3^rd round (111^th overall) by the Houston Astros

Where was he last year?
Jonathan Meyer spent 2011 in Lancaster with the Astros high A affiliate. He put up decent numbers and showed above average proficiency in the field.

Oh! So tell me more!
…and this is probably my biggest shocker of the bunch.

I think it’s weird that there are a lot of people who believe the Astros do not have any viable 3rd base prospects in the system. I believe they’re severely underestimating Jonathan Meyer. He’s the type of player that is geared up for a breakout season and on the brink of establishing himself as a legitimate big league prospect (in the eyes of the skeptics.)

I’m really high on Jonathan Meyer. Obviously.

At 20, Meyer was two years younger than the California League average age but still managed to hold his own by hitting .264 and finishing in the top 20 in homeruns. An OPS of .742 was below average for the league and weak for his position, but I believe he’ll progress as soon as he develops a little more plate discipline. Yes, Meyer struck out a ton, which seems to be an epidemic among Astros hitters (especially on this list). It should be noted that Meyer batted .307 to close out the season

Meyer has a good glove, soft hands and a plus arm. Defensively, he’s more sound than any other Astros third sacker in the organization – on his defense alone, he’ll eventually find a way to the big leagues.  

Meyer is also a perfectionist and an extremely hard worker. He’s easy to root for.

Although Jeff Luhnow will slowplay his prospects, I can envision a scenario where Meyer jumps two rungs in the Astros system and ends up in Oklahoma City – which is a credit to Meyer but also an indictment on the level of talent at 3B in the Astros farm system. I predict Meyer will start the year in Corpus Christi. His glove and arm will be good enough for Oklahoma City, but cutting down on strikeouts and improving plate discipline is going to be key before he is seriously considered for promotion. 

So, when can I expect to see him in Houston?
As stated, I think Meyer will start in Corpus and may end up being promoted before the year’s end. However, as the Astros have Paredes and Wallace playing 3^rd, there might not be a rush to get him to the majors… especially if Wallace produces. I expect Meyer to get his first taste of Major League baseball in 2013 – probably towards the end of the season.

Can you be more specific?
Perhaps someone is moved at the trade deadline in 2013 and Meyer gets called up for the August 1^st game.

The following list of guys SHOULD be in the top ten conversation. I still feel awful for not including Austin Wates.

Austin Wates

Paul Clemens

Adrian Houser

Tanner Bushue

Brett Oberholtzer

Jake Buchanan

Chris Wallace

Kody Hinze

The following list of guys are players who I think will establish (or re-establish) themselves as prospects in 2013. Look for them to make the list in 2013. 

Jack Armstrong

Chase Davidson

Mike Foltynewicz

Yonathan Mejia

Jarvais Reynolds

Jordan Scott

Vincent Velasquez

In conclusion

Obviously Wates and Clemens were the guys that I thought belonged and didn’t make the cut. I believe Clemens will find his way to Houston in the near future and I think Wates is a major league caliber player. I’m really high on Wates and hate that I left him off…

So, there’s the list and fire at will!

-Andy

Follow me on Twitter or Facebook.

Admittedly, I don’t like Roy Oswalt.

But let’s face it, in the last ten years, only Lance Berkman has done more for the Houston Astros than Oswalt has. So, I’m grateful… to extent. When he’s on – he’s unhittable. In 2005, I watched Roy-O carve up the Blue Jays en route to a 3-0 complete game shutout. Although he only struck out three batters, he baffled and bewildered the abysmal Blue Jays – hitter after hitter, in short order, was goaded into gently grounding out or hoaxed into punching puny pop flies. Frankly, it may have been the greatest pitching performance I’ve ever seen in person.

In 2005, in the Astros’ sole pennant winning year, Oswalt made his first All-Star appearance, he finished 4^th in Cy Young voting and finished in 23^rd in NL MVP voting. He made a little under $6,000,000 – plus the value of a bulldozer. 

In August of 2006, while in the final year of a 2-year contract worth $16,900,000, Tim Purpura and Drayton McLane presented Oswalt with a lucrative contract extension that would pay him $73,000,000 through 2011. This was the biggest multiyear contract the Astros had ever given to a pitcher.

They also gave him a complete no-trade clause. 

Oswalt said it “was an honor to be here.”

Tim Purpura said this was “one of the ways a baseball organization can achieve long-term success.” 

Drayton McLane said, “We know the best is yet to come.”

Roy Oswalt continued to dominate the National League – in 2007, he went 14-7 with a 3.18 ERA and in 2008, he went 17-10 with a 3.52 ERA. Gradually, injuries began to pile up and his back became an issue. Oswalt spent time on the Disabled List here and there – but continued to pitch well. 

As Oswalt dominated the National League – the hapless Astros’ hitters failed to hold up their end of the bargain. The team floundered. Oswalt became a hard-luck loser. He got frustrated and, eventually, became very vocal. His body language told the story. Oswalt threw teammates under the proverbial bus. Oswalt complained publicly.

Thing progressively got worse.

In 2010, the disgruntled Oswalt demanded a trade. Ed Wade corrected him and said Oswalt could demand a trade but the Astros didn’t have to oblige. Roy Oswalt backed off of his demand and requested a trade, instead.

Things got even worse. 

Despite the fact that Oswalt requested a trade, he insisted on not waiving his no-trade clause. Oswalt promptly prepared a long list of laudable contenders he’d kindly waive his no-trade clause for – the list? St. Louis and Philadelphia. Obviously, the Astros were not going to trade Oswalt to their loathsome division rival, so Ed Wade’s choices were subsequently slashed to: Philadelphia or not. Essentially, Ed Wade was bidding with the Astros desire to keep the unruly and unhappy right-hander. …and, Philadelphia knew they held the aces and would promptly take advantage of the Astros unfortunate predicament.

Things hit rock bottom.

Roy Oswalt became a cancer. He unceremoniously weaseled his withdraw away from Houston by underhandedly using his leverage to orchestrate a trade to Philadelphia – fair game and the welfare of the Astros organization be damned!

Although Ed Wade got a good return for Oswalt considering the circumstances, it is plain to see that he got considerably less than adequate value for Roy Oswalt. 

That’s not how friends treat each other, right?

Two years later, Roy Oswalt is in serious need of a friend. Being 34 and an injury liability, teams are not lining up to give Oswalt the lucrative multiyear contract he desires. The “demanding” Oswalt has stated he wants to play for a contender. He said he wants to play in the south. He has flirted with Cardinals – as a matter of fact, some reporters claimed he had signed with St. Louis on Saturday. He’ll arrive in Arlington today to meet with the Dallas Rangers. He happily rejected a one-year deal with the Detroit. Rumor has it, he told the Red Sox to kick rocks. Atlanta, Washington or reuniting in the “City of Brotherly Love” is not an option for Oswalt. I heard a rumor that he might wind up on the west coast.

It’s hard to say where Oswalt will hitch his bulldozer. 

Then, as Jon Heyman scoffed, there’s the Astros – yes, the Astros.

Why would the atrocious Astros entertain signing Roy Oswalt? Also, why would “I’m leaving and never looking back” Roy Oswalt consider the Astros? Bridges are burnt and Jeff Luhnow is committed to building his organization from within. The below-average Astros are only contending with themselves as their 2012 battle-cry will surely be “we refuse to lose (more than 100 games).” But, Houston and Oswalt, if they look hard enough, surely will find a reason to get in bed with each other.

Mutually. Beneficial.

Have you ever heard the song “Third Rate Romance?” Basically, the Amazing Rhythm Ace’s song is centered around two sex-deprived people that use each other to extinguish their burning loins – so they secretly escape to a seedy motel to quench their carnal desires. There are a few lyrics in that song that are quite pertinent to the predicament Oswalt and Luhnow have found themselves in.

And talk was small when they talked at all
They both knew what they wanted
There was no need to talk about it
They were old enough to scope it out
And keep it loose

She said “You don’t look like my type, but I guess you’ll do.” 
Third rate romance, low rent rendezvous.
He said, “I’ll even tell you I love you, if you want me to.”
Third rate romance, low rent rendezvous.

Now, I’m not saying that Roy Oswalt and Jeff Luhnow are going to have sex with each other (but, then again, I’m not saying they’re NOT going to have sex with each other, either – I don’t know). I’m saying that it is fathomable that they can use each other to further themselves along professionally. Oswalt wants to play for a contender and Jeff Luhnow wants to rake in minor league prospects. If Roy Oswalt signs with the Astros, it is possible that Luhnow can promise Oswalt that he’d flip him to a contender. Oswalt moves on to bigger and better things while Jeff Luhnow laughs all the way to the bank with his cache of a contender’s prospects - a win-win!

In Houston, Oswalt would be in an area where he is obviously comfortable and, if he pitches particularly well, might be able to finagle a multiyear deal with a different organization that’ll walk hand-and-hand with him to the end of his career.

And, after checking a map, I’ve determined Houston is indeed in the south. And, after the trade deadline, if Oswalt ends up in Boston, New York, Detroit or Alaska – it’s only for a few months. He’ll be able to scamper back down to Dixie once the season is over. He handled Philadelphia for a year and a half… and that address is only two and a half hours away from Gettysburg! 

If Oswalt signs with the Astros, in July, he’ll have a better idea of which teams are contenders, In April and May he can pitch in front of 25,000 forgive-and-forget fans and not have to deal with the daily pressure that comes with a contending club’s high expectations. In July, he can pick up the Chronicle, point to the top of the baseball standings in the sports section and say “Start the car, Jeff! That’s where I wanna go.” Jeff Luhnow will smile, pick up the phone and facilitate the transaction. If he signs in Houston and is eventually traded instead of signing with a team he thinks will contend, he unwisely runs the risk of being stuck plugging away with sizzle when he could have been competing for a title with steak.

Mutually. Beneficial.

While there’s still a little tread on the tires, I cannot expect Luhnow to obtain top-flight prospects in return for Oswalt. But, then again, who knows? If Oswalt pitches well, one should expect a few unpolished high ceiling prospects that may (or may not) contribute to a Houston championship. In an unlikely dream scenario, the Red Sox and Yankees would get in a vicious bidding war for Oswalt’s services, constantly one-upping each other, and, finally, after much consideration, Luhnow delivers the coup de grace and deals Oswalt to Boston for Will Middlebrooks or some other celebrated Sox prospect – who’ll certainly turn out to be the next Jeff Bagwell. Certainly. 

Truth be told, I doubt Oswalt will return the grade of prospects that he yielded the first time around. Obviously, age and injury concerns would factor into a prospective trade partner’s offerings. Everyone is scared to be sold a lemon. And, let’s not forget, Brett Wallce (who was flipped to the Astros) was the key to the Oswalt deal and was one of the more highly regarded prospects in baseball at the time. I doubt Luhnow would be able to swing someone with that much hype. But, then again, hype doesn’t always translate into big league success – just ask… well, Brett Wallace.

Is that a risk the Astros are willing to take? Is Roy Oswalt going to be able to keep his mouth shut and not contaminate all the new blood on the 25-man roster? To Jim Crane, is it worth the $7,000,000 or $8,000,000 to sign Oswalt with no guarantee a trade return would offset Oswalt’s price tag? 

I don’t know.  

Honestly, I seriously doubt the Astros sign Oswalt because I think that they’d have mutual objections about doing business with each other. But, they’re both in desperate need of something each of them can provide and they both can certainly take advantage of the other’s situation right about now. This would be mutually beneficial and borderline codependent - might be a little dysfunctional, but that’s my type of relationship!

I bet Roy Oswalt will even tell us that he loves us… if we want him to. 

-Andy

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I’ve had it up to here with the Texas Rangers. I’m so sick of those bastards - it’s crazy! They really get my blood boiling! 

They think they’re sooooo good - but what have they ever won? They got just as many World Series rings as the people they THINK they’re better than! No, they’re not the Yankees or the Red Sox - they’re the Rangers. 

…and they suck.

How dare Lynn Nolan and his dancing Southern Oklahoma idiots bogart the name “Texas.” The last time I checked, Houston was in Texas, too! What? I don’t recall Jim Crane giving up our Texas affiliation along with our National League affiliation! (he didn’t, right?)

If there is one thing I hate - it’s Dallas. If there is something I hate more than Dallas - it is people from Dallas acting like they’re the only city in Texas. What friggin’ nerve these people have! They’re nothing but a bunch of pretentious, self-serving $40,000 millionaires who look down their noses at the hardworking, backbone of the United freaking States. Let Canada annex ‘em! I don’t give a sh**! Dallas shouldn’t even be a part of Texas. If Anything - HOUSTON should be using the name “Texas.” …but you know what? I don’t want it because I don’t want anyone getting US confused with THEM. If I were from Dallas - I’d be embarrassed! MOVE TO CANADA, DALLAS!

Back to the point: We’ve gotta stop these motherf**kers.  

We need to start a petition, a letter writing campaign, a protest, pour out some 40oz and sacrifice some virgins - we cannot allow the Texas Rangers to impede on our market!

WE ARE IN TEXAS, TOO! 

Henceforth, the Texas Rangers shall now be known as the Dallas Rangers. If you ask me a question about the “Texas Rangers,” I’m going to say, “I’m sorry, buddy, I’ve never heard of the Texas Rangers… I’ve heard of the Dallas Rangers.”

WE WILL NOT UTTER THE WORD “TEXAS” WHEN SPEAKING OF THE RANGERS. PERIOD!

…and before any of you smart mouth Dallas know-it-alls says “Rangers play in Arlington,” let me just say - IT DOESN’T MATTER - it’s ALL the same. Arlington, Dallas, Ft Worth, Irving, Baghdad - NO DIFFERENCE!

So, a few suggestions for the Rangers on what they can call themselves:

Dallas Rangers
Arlington Rangers
Texas (Unofficial) Rangers of Dallas (would spell TURD in the standings)
Dallas Rangers of Texas
Texas Rangers of Dallas
Dallas Rangers of Arlington (my favorite)

Honestly, I think Dallas Rangers is the way to go. People, at least, know where Dallas is - I don’t think anyone knows or cares about Arlington. So, here’s their new logo:

I’m going to go take some blood pressure medication. I started up a Facebook page so we can get an assload of people on board with this cause. So join it and we can continue our Dallas hatespeak there!

…by the way, the T in the logo stands for Terrible. 

-Andy